Colombia vs Ghana

Group null · Matchday 4

· Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City

Group standings →Bracket →CO 100% · GH 100% to advance

Colombia

60%

FT

1–0

Ghana

10%

Share card

Goals (1)

14'

J. Arias

Colombia

Cards (5)

12'

J. Arias

Colombia
49'

C. Yirenkyi

Ghana
66'

I. Fatawu

Ghana
76'

A. Seidu

Ghana
78'

R. Rios

Colombia

Substitutions (9)

8'

↑ L. Suarez for J. Cordoba

Colombia
13'

↑ A. Seidu for M. Senaya

Ghana
46'

↑ R. Rios for J. Rodriguez

Colombia
62'

↑ I. Fatawu for I. Williams

Ghana
62'

↑ E. Owusu for K. Sibo

Ghana
73'

↑ J. Quintero for J. Arias

Colombia
79'

↑ E. Nuamah for J. Ayew

Ghana
79'

↑ P. Adu for C. Yirenkyi

Ghana
90'

↑ J. Campaz for L. Diaz

Colombia

Match stats

60%Possession40%
20Shots8
8Shots on target0
2.09Expected goals0.26
3Corners2
14Fouls10
2Offsides0
0Saves7
91%Pass accuracy83%

Top performer

JA

J. Arias

Colombia · 1 goal

Lineups

Colombia4-3-3

Ghana4-1-4-1

What's at stake

Knockout fixture, single elimination.

Season form comparison

sample home 5 · away 4

1.00
Goals / match
0.50
0.20
Conceded / match
0.75
20%
BTTS rate
25%
80%
Clean sheet rate
50%
1.62
xG / match (club)
0.00
4.5
Corners / match
4.1
2.2
Yellows / match
2.2
54%
Possession
46%

Head to head · 1 meetings

0

Colombia wins

1

Draws

0

Ghana wins

Last: Colombia 0-0 Ghana (2026-07-04)avg 0.0 goals

Absences

model swing: 0 / 0 pp

Colombia

No known absences.

Ghana

No known absences.

Win probability

Pre-match

The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.

Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.

The model's read

Medium confidence

  • Result: Colombia are slight favourites at 60%, but it is far from settled.

  • Goals: A low-scoring game looks likely. Under 2.5 is favoured (74%).

  • Both score: Expect at least one clean sheet. Both-teams-score is just 25%.

Most likely score 1-0 (22%)

Why the model leans this way

Factor contributions

home←·→away

Rest days
-6.0%/+6.0%
Club xG form
-1.2%/-5.6%
Travel
-3.0%/0.0%

Two-model view

Second model api-football

Two-model consensus

Colombia

50%

Draw

50%

Ghana

0%

Their internal ratings (0-100)

64·
Form
·36
67·
Attack
·33
67·
Defence
·33

Their advice: Combo Double chance : Colombia or draw and -3.5 goals

Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.

Match analysis

Score-line probability

brighter = more likely

Colombia goals
18
6
22
10
16
6
7
0123456

Ghana goals

Most likely: 1-0 22%, 0-0 18%, 2-0 16%. Outlined cells are draws.

Total goals

over 2.5 = 26%

18
0
28
1
28
2
16
3
7
4
2
5
1
6+

Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.

Team comparison

AttackDefenceRatingSet-pieceattackSet-piecedefence
ColombiaGhana

Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.

Fair odds for every market

How to use this

Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.

Match result

Home win60%1.67
Draw30%3.33
Away win10%9.84

Double chance

Home or draw90%1.11
Home or away70%1.43
Draw or away40%2.49

Draw no bet

Home (DNB)85%1.17
Away (DNB)15%6.88

Total goals

Over 0.582%1.22
Under 0.518%5.46
Over 1.554%1.86
Under 1.546%2.17
Over 2.526%3.85
Under 2.574%1.35
Over 3.510%9.69
Under 3.590%1.12
Over 4.53%29.47
Under 4.597%1.04

Odd / even goals

Odd46%2.17
Even54%1.86

Exact total goals

0 goals18%5.46
1 goals28%3.59
2 goals28%3.59
3 goals16%6.37
4 goals7%14.45
5 goals2%40.92
6+ goals1%105.32

Both teams to score

Yes25%3.94
No75%1.34

Team totals

Home over 0.575%1.34
Home over 1.540%2.51
Home over 2.516%6.25
Away over 0.532%3.08
Away over 1.56%16.83
Away over 2.51%133.26

Clean sheet

Home clean sheet68%1.48
Away clean sheet25%3.95

Win to nil

Home win to nil49%2.03
Away win to nil7%14.25

Asian handicap (home)

Home -2.512%8.18
Home -1.531%3.18
Home -0.561%1.65
Home +0.591%1.10
Home +1.598%1.02
Home +2.599%+1.00

Correct score (top 8)

1-022%4.48
0-018%5.46
2-016%6.20
1-110%9.60
3-07%13.54
2-16%15.81
0-16%18.14
3-13%34.54

Half-time result

Home41%2.47
Draw50%1.99
Away9%10.88

Half-time goals

Over 0.555%1.82
Under 0.545%2.21
Over 1.519%5.29
Under 1.581%1.23

Half-time / full-time

Home/Home38%2.66
Home/Draw3%37.14
Home/Away<1%332.64
Draw/Home23%4.34
Draw/Draw22%4.49
Draw/Away5%20.20
Away/Home1%78.43
Away/Draw3%37.14
Away/Away5%19.16

Corners (match total)

Indicative
Over 8.550%2.00
Under 8.550%2.00
Over 9.537%2.70
Under 9.563%1.59
Over 10.526%3.90
Under 10.574%1.34
Over 11.517%5.99
Under 11.583%1.20
Over 12.510%9.80
Under 12.590%1.11

Expected total: 8.7

CO corners

Indicative
Over 3.564%1.56
Under 3.536%2.79
Over 4.545%2.22
Under 4.555%1.82
Over 5.528%3.56
Under 5.572%1.39
Over 6.516%6.37
Under 6.584%1.19

Expected total: 4.4

GH corners

Indicative
Over 3.562%1.62
Under 3.538%2.62
Over 4.542%2.36
Under 4.558%1.74
Over 5.526%3.86
Under 5.574%1.35
Over 6.514%7.09
Under 6.586%1.16

Expected total: 4.3

Yellow cards (match total)

Indicative
Over 2.580%1.25
Under 2.520%5.01
Over 3.562%1.61
Under 3.538%2.63
Over 4.543%2.35
Under 4.557%1.74
Over 5.526%3.84
Under 5.574%1.35

Expected total: 4.3

CO anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

J. Rodríguez (Attacker)34%2.96
J. Córdoba (Attacker)34%2.96
J. Murillo (?)13%7.79
I. Poveda (?)13%7.79
J. Cuadrado (?)13%7.79
A. Morelos (?)13%7.79
I. Arboleda (?)13%7.79
L. Orejuela (?)13%7.79

Expected total: 1.6

GH anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

C. Bonsu Baah (Attacker)11%9.02
J. Aidoo (?)4%26.04
F. Annan (?)4%26.04
R. Ofori (?)4%26.04
H. Afful (?)4%26.04
J. Mensah (?)4%26.04
D. Amartey (?)4%26.04
M. Wakaso (?)4%26.04

Expected total: 0.4

Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 1.37, away 0.39). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.