All matches
Australia vs Egypt
Group null · Matchday 4
· AT&T Stadium, Dallas
Decided on penalties
1-1 after ET · 2-4 pens
Australia2
Egypt4
Cards (2)
105'Egypt
H. Hassan
120'Egypt
Y. Ibrahim
Substitutions (11)
46'Australia
↑ K. Trewin for J. Bos
67'Egypt
↑ Hossam Abdelmaguid for Hamdy Fathy
67'Egypt
↑ Haissem Hassan for Mostafa Ziko
74'Australia
↑ Mohamed Touré for Nestory Irankunda
74'Australia
↑ Ajdin Hrustić for Cristian Volpato
80'Egypt
↑ Trezeguet for K. Hafez
91'Australia
↑ Awer Mabil for Connor Metcalfe
91'Australia
↑ Paul Okon-Engstler for Aiden O'Neill
106'Egypt
↑ H. Abdelkarim for O. Marmoush
119'Australia
↑ M. Ryan for P. Beach
120'Egypt
↑ Mahmoud Saber for Marwan Attia
Match stats
42%Possession58%
16Shots14
1Shots on target4
0.87Expected goals1.36
4Corners7
12Fouls14
0Offsides3
3Saves1
80%Pass accuracy85%
Top performer
EAE. Ashour
Egypt · 1 goal
Lineups
Australia3-4-2-1
What's at stake
Knockout fixture, single elimination.
Season form comparison
sample home 4 · away 5
0.75
Goals / match
1.60
0.75
Conceded / match
1.40
25%
BTTS rate
100%
50%
Clean sheet rate
0%
0.44
xG / match (club)
0.00
4.5
Corners / match
4.8
1.5
Yellows / match
1.9
51%
Possession
52%
Head to head · 1 meetings
0
Australia wins
1
Draws
0
Egypt wins
Last: Australia 0-0 Egypt (2026-07-03)avg 0.0 goals
Absences
model swing: 0 / 0 pp
Australia
No known absences.
Egypt
No known absences.
Win probability
Pre-match
The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.
Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.
The model's read
Wide-open matchResult: An open match. Australia edge it at just 36%.
Goals: A low-scoring game looks likely. Under 2.5 is favoured (67%).
Both score: Expect at least one clean sheet. Both-teams-score is just 42%.
Most likely score 1-1 (15%)
Why the model leans this way
Factor contributions
home←·→away
Rest days
+6.0%/-6.0%
Travel
0.0%/-1.0%
Club xG form
-3.3%/-2.7%
Two-model view
Second model api-football
Two models moderately agreeAustralia
45%
Draw
45%
Egypt
10%
Their internal ratings (0-100)
44·
Form
·56
29·
Attack
·71
60·
Defence
·40
Their advice: Combo Double chance : Australia or draw and -3.5 goals
Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.
Key players to watch
Australia
No per-90 data for this squad yet.
Per-90 stats: Rising Transfers (risingtransfers.com), CC BY 4.0
Match analysis
Score-line probability
brighter = more likely
Australia goals
15
11
6
13
15
6
8
7
0123456
Egypt goals
Most likely: 1-1 15%, 0-0 15%, 1-0 13%. Outlined cells are draws.
Total goals
over 2.5 = 33%
150
231
292
183
94
45
26+
Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.
Team comparison
AustraliaEgypt
Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.
Fair odds for every market
How to use this
Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.
Match result
Home win36%2.76
Draw34%2.94
Away win30%3.37
Double chance
Home or draw70%1.42
Home or away66%1.52
Draw or away64%1.57
Draw no bet
Home (DNB)55%1.82
Away (DNB)45%2.22
Total goals
Over 0.585%1.18
Under 0.515%6.67
Over 1.562%1.62
Under 1.538%2.61
Over 2.533%3.04
Under 2.567%1.49
Over 3.515%6.81
Under 3.585%1.17
Over 4.55%18.30
Under 4.595%1.06
Odd / even goals
Odd46%2.19
Even54%1.84
Exact total goals
0 goals15%6.67
1 goals23%4.30
2 goals29%3.47
3 goals18%5.48
4 goals9%10.85
5 goals4%26.82
6+ goals2%57.57
Both teams to score
Yes42%2.38
No58%1.73
Team totals
Home over 0.566%1.52
Home over 1.529%3.41
Home over 2.510%10.50
Away over 0.561%1.64
Away over 1.524%4.10
Away over 2.57%14.23
Clean sheet
Home clean sheet39%2.57
Away clean sheet34%2.94
Win to nil
Home win to nil24%4.18
Away win to nil19%5.25
Asian handicap (home)
Home -2.55%21.36
Home -1.515%6.52
Home -0.536%2.74
Home +0.571%1.42
Home +1.589%1.13
Home +2.597%1.03
Correct score (top 8)
1-115%6.57
0-015%6.67
1-013%7.99
0-111%9.31
2-08%13.00
2-17%13.77
1-26%15.73
0-26%16.95
Half-time result
Home28%3.62
Draw49%2.04
Away23%4.27
Half-time goals
Over 0.560%1.67
Under 0.540%2.48
Over 1.523%4.33
Under 1.577%1.30
Half-time / full-time
Home/Home22%4.60
Home/Draw5%22.01
Home/Away1%76.14
Draw/Home15%6.69
Draw/Draw21%4.66
Draw/Away13%7.95
Away/Home2%64.96
Away/Draw5%22.01
Away/Away17%5.77
Corners (match total)
IndicativeOver 8.560%1.68
Under 8.540%2.47
Over 9.546%2.15
Under 9.554%1.87
Over 10.534%2.92
Under 10.566%1.52
Over 11.524%4.22
Under 11.576%1.31
Over 12.516%6.45
Under 12.585%1.18
Expected total: 9.4
AU corners
IndicativeOver 3.567%1.49
Under 3.533%3.05
Over 4.548%2.06
Under 4.552%1.94
Over 5.531%3.20
Under 5.569%1.45
Over 6.518%5.54
Under 6.582%1.22
Expected total: 4.6
EG corners
IndicativeOver 3.571%1.41
Under 3.529%3.41
Over 4.553%1.90
Under 4.547%2.11
Over 5.535%2.85
Under 5.565%1.54
Over 6.521%4.76
Under 6.579%1.27
Expected total: 4.8
Yellow cards (match total)
IndicativeOver 2.566%1.52
Under 2.534%2.91
Over 3.544%2.29
Under 3.556%1.78
Over 4.525%3.97
Under 4.575%1.34
Over 5.513%7.89
Under 5.587%1.15
Expected total: 3.4
AU anytime goalscorer
Indicativevery low sample (n=0)
T. Yengi (Attacker)28%3.62
N. Velupillay (Attacker)28%3.62
T. Sainsbury (?)10%9.78
A. Giannou (?)10%9.78
T. Rogić (?)10%9.78
D. Vukovic (?)10%9.78
M. Langerak (?)10%9.78
M. Jurman (?)10%9.78
Expected total: 1.3
EG anytime goalscorer
Indicativelow sample (n=4)
Trézéguet (Attacker)28%3.60
Zizo (Attacker)25%4.06
Emam Ashour (Midfielder)12%8.66
Mostafa Zico (Midfielder)12%8.66
Mahmoud Saber (Midfielder)10%9.72
Koka (?)9%11.10
Mahmoud Gennesh (?)9%11.10
Mohamed Abou Gabal (?)9%11.10
Expected total: 1.3
Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 1.08, away 0.94). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.