Australia vs Egypt
Group null · Matchday 4
· AT&T Stadium, Dallas
Decided on penalties
1-1 after ET · 2-4 pens
Australia
EgyptCards (2)
H. Hassan
Y. Ibrahim
Substitutions (11)
↑ K. Trewin for J. Bos
↑ Hossam Abdelmaguid for Hamdy Fathy
↑ Haissem Hassan for Mostafa Ziko
↑ Mohamed Touré for Nestory Irankunda
↑ Ajdin Hrustić for Cristian Volpato
↑ Trezeguet for K. Hafez
↑ Awer Mabil for Connor Metcalfe
↑ Paul Okon-Engstler for Aiden O'Neill
↑ H. Abdelkarim for O. Marmoush
↑ M. Ryan for P. Beach
↑ Mahmoud Saber for Marwan Attia
Match stats
Top performer
EAE. Ashour
Egypt · 1 goal
Lineups
Australia3-4-2-1
What's at stake
Knockout fixture, single elimination.
Season form comparison
sample home 4 · away 5
Head to head · 1 meetings
0
Australia wins
1
Draws
0
Egypt wins
Absences
model swing: 0 / 0 pp
Australia
No known absences.
Egypt
No known absences.
Win probability
Pre-match
The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.
Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.
The model's read
Wide-open matchResult: An open match. Australia edge it at just 36%.
Goals: A low-scoring game looks likely. Under 2.5 is favoured (67%).
Both score: Expect at least one clean sheet. Both-teams-score is just 42%.
Why the model leans this way
Factor contributions
home←·→away
Two-model view
Second model api-football
Two models moderately agreeAustralia
45%
Draw
45%
Egypt
10%
Their internal ratings (0-100)
Their advice: Combo Double chance : Australia or draw and -3.5 goals
Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.
Key players to watch
Australia
No per-90 data for this squad yet.
Per-90 stats: Rising Transfers (risingtransfers.com), CC BY 4.0
Match analysis
Score-line probability
brighter = more likely
Egypt goals
Most likely: 1-1 15%, 0-0 15%, 1-0 13%. Outlined cells are draws.
Total goals
over 2.5 = 33%
Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.
Team comparison
Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.
Fair odds for every market
How to use this
Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.
Match result
Double chance
Draw no bet
Total goals
Odd / even goals
Exact total goals
Both teams to score
Team totals
Clean sheet
Win to nil
Asian handicap (home)
Correct score (top 8)
Half-time result
Half-time goals
Half-time / full-time
Corners (match total)
IndicativeExpected total: 9.4
AU corners
IndicativeExpected total: 4.6
EG corners
IndicativeExpected total: 4.8
Yellow cards (match total)
IndicativeExpected total: 3.4
AU anytime goalscorer
Indicativevery low sample (n=0)
Expected total: 1.3
EG anytime goalscorer
Indicativelow sample (n=4)
Expected total: 1.3
Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 1.08, away 0.94). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.