All matches
Canada vs Morocco
Group null · Matchday 5
· NRG Stadium, Houston
Goals (3)
Cards (8)
20'
Morocco
R. Halhal
40'Morocco
A. Hakimi
40'
Canada
R. Laryea
43'Canada
J. David
45'Morocco
A. Ounahi
51'Morocco
B. El Khannouss
49'Canada
L. De Fougerolles
67'Canada
C. Larin
Substitutions (10)
22'Morocco
↑ S. Rahimi for I. Saibari
63'Canada
↑ Cyle Larin for Tani Oluwaseyi
63'Morocco
↑ S. Amrabat for A. Bouaddi
63'Morocco
↑ C. Talbi for B. El Khannouss
78'Canada
↑ P. David for A. Ahmed
79'Canada
↑ J. Shaffelburg for R. Laryea
87'Morocco
↑ M. Saadane for I. Diop
87'Morocco
↑ S. El Mourabet for A. Ounahi
87'Canada
↑ J. Nelson for T. Buchanan
87'Canada
↑ J. Osorio for N. Sigur
Match stats
45%Possession55%
12Shots4
3Shots on target3
11Corners1
24Fouls14
2Offsides3
1Saves3
Top performer
AOA. Ounahi
Morocco · 2 goals
Lineups
Canada4-4-2
What's at stake
Knockout fixture, single elimination.
Season form comparison
sample home 5 · away 6
1.80
Goals / match
1.67
1.20
Conceded / match
1.00
40%
BTTS rate
50%
40%
Clean sheet rate
33%
1.33
xG / match (club)
0.95
5.5
Corners / match
4.6
2.0
Yellows / match
1.4
52%
Possession
54%
Canada · last 5
Head to head · 1 meetings
0
Canada wins
0
Draws
1
Morocco wins
Last: Canada 1-2 Morocco (2022-12-01)avg 3.0 goals
Absences
model swing: 0 / 0 pp
Canada
No known absences.
Morocco
No known absences.
Win probability
Pre-match
The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.
Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.
The model's read
Medium confidenceResult: Morocco are slight favourites at 53%, but it is far from settled.
Goals: A low-scoring game looks likely. Under 2.5 is favoured (56%).
Most likely score 1-1 (13%)
Why the model leans this way
Factor contributions
home←·→away
Rest days
+6.0%/-6.0%
Club xG form
-2.8%/-1.6%
Two-model view
Second model api-football
Two models moderately agreeCanada
10%
Draw
45%
Morocco
45%
Their internal ratings (0-100)
41·
Form
·59
53·
Attack
·47
57·
Defence
·43
Their advice: Double chance : draw or Morocco
Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.
Match analysis
Score-line probability
brighter = more likely
Canada goals
10
12
11
6
6
13
9
5
5
0123456
Morocco goals
Most likely: 1-1 13%, 0-1 12%, 0-2 11%. Outlined cells are draws.
Total goals
over 2.5 = 44%
100
181
282
213
134
65
46+
Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.
Team comparison
CanadaMorocco
Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.
Fair odds for every market
How to use this
Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.
Match result
Home win19%5.20
Draw28%3.54
Away win53%1.90
Double chance
Home or draw47%2.11
Home or away72%1.39
Draw or away81%1.24
Draw no bet
Home (DNB)27%3.73
Away (DNB)73%1.37
Total goals
Over 0.590%1.12
Under 0.510%9.63
Over 1.571%1.40
Under 1.529%3.47
Over 2.544%2.29
Under 2.556%1.77
Over 3.523%4.42
Under 3.577%1.29
Over 4.510%10.11
Under 4.590%1.11
Odd / even goals
Odd47%2.15
Even53%1.87
Exact total goals
0 goals10%9.63
1 goals18%5.43
2 goals28%3.63
3 goals21%4.76
4 goals13%7.85
5 goals6%16.19
6+ goals4%26.93
Both teams to score
Yes47%2.14
No53%1.88
Team totals
Home over 0.557%1.76
Home over 1.521%4.85
Home over 2.55%18.69
Away over 0.579%1.26
Away over 1.547%2.13
Away over 2.521%4.71
Clean sheet
Home clean sheet21%4.87
Away clean sheet43%2.32
Win to nil
Home win to nil10%9.86
Away win to nil33%3.05
Asian handicap (home)
Home -2.52%66.83
Home -1.56%15.95
Home -0.518%5.44
Home +0.547%2.14
Home +1.571%1.41
Home +2.588%1.14
Correct score (top 8)
1-113%7.51
0-112%8.01
0-211%9.01
0-010%9.63
1-29%10.72
1-06%16.90
0-36%17.08
2-15%20.17
Half-time result
Home17%5.72
Draw43%2.31
Away39%2.55
Half-time goals
Over 0.566%1.51
Under 0.534%2.98
Over 1.530%3.36
Under 1.570%1.42
Half-time / full-time
Home/Home11%9.27
Home/Draw4%22.95
Home/Away2%42.62
Draw/Home8%12.44
Draw/Draw16%6.06
Draw/Away19%5.33
Away/Home1%92.77
Away/Draw4%22.95
Away/Away34%2.96
Corners (match total)
IndicativeOver 8.567%1.50
Under 8.533%3.00
Over 9.554%1.85
Under 9.546%2.18
Over 10.542%2.40
Under 10.558%1.71
Over 11.530%3.30
Under 11.570%1.43
Over 12.521%4.81
Under 12.579%1.26
Expected total: 10.0
CA corners
IndicativeOver 3.578%1.29
Under 3.522%4.46
Over 4.561%1.63
Under 4.539%2.58
Over 5.544%2.28
Under 5.556%1.78
Over 6.528%3.52
Under 6.572%1.40
Expected total: 5.3
MA corners
IndicativeOver 3.569%1.45
Under 3.531%3.21
Over 4.550%1.99
Under 4.550%2.01
Over 5.533%3.04
Under 5.567%1.49
Over 6.519%5.17
Under 6.581%1.24
Expected total: 4.7
Yellow cards (match total)
IndicativeOver 2.568%1.48
Under 2.532%3.09
Over 3.546%2.17
Under 3.554%1.85
Over 4.527%3.68
Under 4.573%1.37
Over 5.514%7.12
Under 5.586%1.16
Expected total: 3.5
CA anytime goalscorer
Indicativelow sample (n=1)
N. Saliba (Midfielder)9%10.85
J. Leutwiler (?)8%12.39
L. Cavallini (?)8%12.39
D. Wotherspoon (?)8%12.39
H. Paton (?)8%12.39
A. Akinola (?)8%12.39
T. Ricketts (?)8%12.39
T. Borges (?)8%12.39
Expected total: 0.7
MA anytime goalscorer
Indicativelow sample (n=1)
S. Rahimi (Attacker)50%2.01
S. Amrabat (Midfielder)15%6.83
H. Mendyl (?)15%6.83
N. Boujellab (?)15%6.83
Y. Belhanda (?)15%6.83
A. Taarabt (?)15%6.83
M. El Haddadi (?)15%6.83
O. El Kaddouri (?)15%6.83
Expected total: 1.8
Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 0.84, away 1.58). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.