Scotland vs Morocco

Group C · Matchday 2

· Gillette Stadium, Boston

Group C standings →Bracket →GB-SCT 0% · MA 100% to advance

Scotland

21%

0–1

HT 0–1

Morocco

48%

Share card

Goals (1)

I. Saibari

assist: B. Diaz

Morocco

Cards (2)

23'

I. Diop

Morocco

65'

A. Robertson

Scotland

Substitutions (9)

60'

↑ B. Gannon-Doak for K. Tierney

Scotland

71'

↑ K. McLean for R. Christie

Scotland

71'

↑ L. Dykes for C. Adams

Scotland

84'

↑ A. Amaimouni for B. Diaz

Morocco

84'

↑ C. Talbi for B. El Khannouss

Morocco

84'

↑ S. Rahimi for I. Saibari

Morocco

89'

↑ A. Ralston for N. Patterson

Scotland

89'

↑ R. Stewart for J. McGinn

Scotland

90'

↑ S. El Mourabet for A. Ounahi

Morocco

Match stats

41%Possession59%

6Shots12

0Shots on target2

0.54Expected goals0.95

1Corners5

10Fouls8

1Offsides0

1Saves0

85%Pass accuracy90%

Top performer

I. Saibari

Morocco · 1 goal

Lineups

Scotland4-4-1-1

Morocco4-2-3-1

What's at stake

Matchday 2, Group C. The losing side here typically needs a Matchday 3 win plus favourable other-game results to advance.

Season form comparison

sample home 3 · away 6

0.33

Goals / match

1.67

1.33

Conceded / match

1.00

BTTS rate

50%

33%

Clean sheet rate

33%

1.28

xG / match (club)

0.95

5.8

Corners / match

4.6

1.6

Yellows / match

1.4

55%

Possession

54%

Scotland · last 3

Haiti0-114 June LH

Morocco0-119 June LH

Brazil0-324 June

Morocco · last 5

Scotland0-119 June WH

Haiti4-224 June DA

Netherlands1-130 June WA

Canada0-34 July LA

France2-09 July

Head to head · 1 meetings

Scotland wins

Draws

Morocco wins

Last: Scotland 0-1 Morocco (2026-06-19)avg 1.0 goals

Absences

model swing: 0 / 0 pp

Scotland

No known absences.

Morocco

No known absences.

Win probability

Pre-match

The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.

Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.

The model's read

Medium confidence

Result: Morocco are slight favourites at 48%, but it is far from settled.
Goals: A low-scoring game looks likely. Under 2.5 is favoured (63%).
Both score: Expect at least one clean sheet. Both-teams-score is just 42%.

Most likely score 0-1 (14%)

Why the model leans this way

Factor contributions

home←·→away

Rest days

+6.0%/-6.0%

Club xG form

-3.8%/-0.9%

Travel

-1.0%/0.0%

Two-model view

Second model api-football

Two models diverge

Scotland

45%

Draw

45%

Morocco

10%

Their internal ratings (0-100)

75·

Form

·25

50·

Attack

·50

100·

Defence

·0

Their advice: Combo Double chance : Scotland or draw and -3.5 goals

Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.

Match analysis

Score-line probability

brighter = more likely

Scotland goals

0123456

Morocco goals

Most likely: 0-1 14%, 1-1 14%, 0-0 13%. Outlined cells are draws.

Total goals

over 2.5 = 37%

Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.

Team comparison

ScotlandMorocco

Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.

Fair odds for every market

How to use this

Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.

Match result

Home win21%4.81

Draw31%3.22

Away win48%2.08

Double chance

Home or draw52%1.93

Home or away69%1.45

Draw or away79%1.26

Draw no bet

Home (DNB)30%3.32

Away (DNB)70%1.43

Total goals

Over 0.587%1.15

Under 0.513%7.63

Over 1.565%1.53

Under 1.535%2.88

Over 2.537%2.72

Under 2.563%1.58

Over 3.517%5.76

Under 3.583%1.21

Over 4.57%14.56

Under 4.593%1.07

Odd / even goals

Odd46%2.17

Even54%1.86

Exact total goals

0 goals13%7.63

1 goals22%4.63

2 goals29%3.51

3 goals19%5.15

4 goals11%9.53

5 goals5%22.01

6+ goals2%43.04

Both teams to score

Yes42%2.35

No58%1.74

Team totals

Home over 0.555%1.83

Home over 1.519%5.30

Home over 2.55%21.54

Away over 0.575%1.34

Away over 1.540%2.51

Away over 2.516%6.27

Clean sheet

Home clean sheet25%3.94

Away clean sheet45%2.21

Win to nil

Home win to nil12%8.15

Away win to nil32%3.11

Asian handicap (home)

Home -2.52%65.81

Home -1.57%15.08

Home -0.520%4.99

Home +0.551%1.96

Home +1.575%1.32

Home +2.591%1.10

Correct score (top 8)

0-114%7.08

1-114%7.09

0-013%7.63

0-211%9.26

1-29%11.68

1-07%13.36

2-15%20.20

0-35%20.27

Half-time result

Home18%5.58

Draw47%2.15

Away36%2.82

Half-time goals

Over 0.562%1.61

Under 0.538%2.65

Over 1.525%3.93

Under 1.575%1.34

Half-time / full-time

Home/Home12%8.56

Home/Draw4%23.26

Home/Away2%51.19

Draw/Home9%11.13

Draw/Draw19%5.21

Draw/Away18%5.45

Away/Home1%99.07

Away/Draw4%23.26

Away/Away30%3.31

Corners (match total)

Indicative

Over 8.564%1.57

Under 8.536%2.76

Over 9.551%1.96

Under 9.549%2.04

Over 10.539%2.59

Under 10.561%1.63

Over 11.528%3.63

Under 11.572%1.38

Over 12.519%5.40

Under 12.581%1.23

Expected total: 9.8

GB-SCT corners

Indicative

Over 3.574%1.34

Under 3.526%3.90

Over 4.557%1.75

Under 4.543%2.33

Over 5.540%2.53

Under 5.560%1.65

Over 6.525%4.04

Under 6.575%1.33

Expected total: 5.1

MA corners

Indicative

Over 3.569%1.45

Under 3.531%3.21

Over 4.550%1.99

Under 4.550%2.01

Over 5.533%3.04

Under 5.567%1.49

Over 6.519%5.17

Under 6.581%1.24

Expected total: 4.7

Yellow cards (match total)

Indicative

Over 2.563%1.59

Under 2.537%2.70

Over 3.541%2.46

Under 3.559%1.69

Over 4.523%4.40

Under 4.577%1.29

Over 5.511%9.05

Under 5.589%1.12

Expected total: 3.2

GB-SCT anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

R. Jack (?)8%13.12

R. Snodgrass (?)8%13.12

S. Armstrong (?)8%13.12

C. Paterson (?)8%13.12

J. Fleck (?)8%13.12

M. Phillips (?)8%13.12

B. McKay (?)8%13.12

D. Marshall (?)8%13.12

Expected total: 0.6

MA anytime goalscorer

Indicative

low sample (n=1)

S. Rahimi (Attacker)45%2.23

S. Amrabat (Midfielder)13%7.81

H. Mendyl (?)13%7.81

N. Boujellab (?)13%7.81

Y. Belhanda (?)13%7.81

A. Taarabt (?)13%7.81

M. El Haddadi (?)13%7.81

O. El Kaddouri (?)13%7.81

Expected total: 1.6

Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 0.79, away 1.37). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.