Morocco vs Haiti

Group C · Matchday 3

· Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta

Group C standings →Bracket →MA 100% · HT 0% to advance

Morocco

82%

4–2

Haiti

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Goals (6)

10'

Bonoog

Haiti

39'

A. Hakimi

Morocco

43'

W. Isidor

Haiti

45'

I. Saibari

assist: A. Hakimi

Morocco

78'

S. Rahimi

assist: C. Riad

Morocco

89'

G. Yassine

assist: S. Rahimi

Morocco

Cards (3)

79'

J. Placide

Haiti

80'

Duckens Nazon

Haiti

93'

Josué Casimir

Haiti

Substitutions (10)

67'

↑ D. Nazon for R. Providence

Haiti

67'

↑ L. Deedson for W. Isidor

Haiti

70'

↑ G. Yassine for A. El Kaabi

Morocco

70'

↑ A. Ounahi for B. Diaz

Morocco

70'

↑ S. Rahimi for I. Saibari

Morocco

80'

↑ D. Simon for D. Jean Jacques

Haiti

80'

↑ C. Arcus for J. Duverne

Haiti

83'

↑ N. Mazraoui for A. Salah-Eddine

Morocco

83'

↑ S. El Mourabet for N. El Aynaoui

Morocco

83'

↑ F. Pierrot for L. Joseph

Haiti

Match stats

70%Possession30%

22Shots5

11Shots on target1

3.26Expected goals0.52

9Corners0

9Fouls18

5Offsides0

0Saves8

89%Pass accuracy80%

Top performer

A. Hakimi

Morocco · 1 goal

Lineups

Morocco4-2-3-1

Haiti4-4-2

What's at stake

Matchday 3, final group game. Both sides know the exact result they need.

Season form comparison

sample home 6 · away 3

1.67

Goals / match

0.67

1.00

Conceded / match

2.67

50%

BTTS rate

33%

Clean sheet rate

0.95

xG / match (club)

0.00

4.6

Corners / match

4.8

1.4

Yellows / match

1.6

54%

Possession

53%

Morocco · last 5

Scotland0-119 June WH

Haiti4-224 June DA

Netherlands1-130 June WA

Canada0-34 July LA

France2-09 July

Haiti · last 3

Scotland0-114 June LA

Brazil3-020 June LA

Morocco4-224 June

Head to head · 1 meetings

Morocco wins

Draws

Haiti wins

Last: Morocco 0-0 Haiti (2026-06-24)avg 0.0 goals

Absences

model swing: 0 / 0 pp

Morocco

No known absences.

Haiti

No known absences.

Win probability

Pre-match

The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.

Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.

The model's read

High confidence

Result: Morocco are strong favourites at 82%.
Goals: Goals expected. Over 2.5 lands 57% of the time.
Both score: Expect at least one clean sheet. Both-teams-score is just 33%.

Most likely score 2-0 (16%)

Why the model leans this way

Factor contributions

home←·→away

Rest days

-6.0%/+6.0%

Club xG form

-0.6%/-4.6%

Set pieces

+1.2%/-2.4%

Two-model view

Second model api-football

Two models diverge

Morocco

50%

Draw

50%

Haiti

Their internal ratings (0-100)

100·

Form

·0

100·

Attack

·0

80·

Defence

·20

Their advice: Combo Double chance : Morocco or draw and -3.5 goals

Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.

Match analysis

Score-line probability

brighter = more likely

Morocco goals

0123456

Haiti goals

Most likely: 2-0 16%, 3-0 14%, 1-0 12%. Outlined cells are draws.

Total goals

over 2.5 = 56%

Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.

Team comparison

MoroccoHaiti

Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.

Fair odds for every market

How to use this

Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.

Match result

Home win82%1.22

Draw14%7.27

Away win4%23.18

Double chance

Home or draw96%1.05

Home or away86%1.16

Draw or away18%5.54

Draw no bet

Home (DNB)95%1.05

Away (DNB)5%19.99

Total goals

Over 0.594%1.06

Under 0.56%17.39

Over 1.581%1.24

Under 1.519%5.17

Over 2.557%1.74

Under 2.543%2.35

Over 3.535%2.85

Under 3.565%1.54

Over 4.518%5.46

Under 4.582%1.22

Odd / even goals

Odd48%2.06

Even52%1.94

Exact total goals

0 goals6%17.39

1 goals14%7.36

2 goals23%4.31

3 goals22%4.46

4 goals17%5.97

5 goals10%9.98

6+ goals8%12.07

Both teams to score

Yes33%3.03

No67%1.49

Team totals

Home over 0.592%1.08

Home over 1.572%1.38

Home over 2.547%2.12

Away over 0.535%2.86

Away over 1.57%14.28

Away over 2.51%103.17

Clean sheet

Home clean sheet65%1.54

Away clean sheet8%12.92

Win to nil

Home win to nil59%1.69

Away win to nil2%50.29

Asian handicap (home)

Home -2.539%2.60

Home -1.562%1.61

Home -0.583%1.21

Home +0.596%1.04

Home +1.599%1.01

Home +2.599%+1.00

Correct score (top 8)

2-016%6.07

3-014%7.12

1-012%8.23

4-09%11.13

2-17%14.09

1-16%15.95

3-16%16.52

0-06%17.39

Half-time result

Home62%1.62

Draw32%3.11

Away6%16.13

Half-time goals

Over 0.574%1.35

Under 0.526%3.84

Over 1.539%2.57

Under 1.561%1.64

Half-time / full-time

Home/Home59%1.68

Home/Draw2%52.14

Home/Away<1%437.57

Draw/Home22%4.59

Draw/Draw8%11.81

Draw/Away2%51.43

Away/Home2%47.90

Away/Draw2%52.14

Away/Away2%45.60

Corners (match total)

Indicative

Over 8.561%1.64

Under 8.539%2.56

Over 9.548%2.08

Under 9.552%1.92

Over 10.536%2.81

Under 10.564%1.55

Over 11.525%4.01

Under 11.575%1.33

Over 12.516%6.08

Under 12.584%1.20

Expected total: 9.5

MA corners

Indicative

Over 3.569%1.45

Under 3.531%3.21

Over 4.550%1.99

Under 4.550%2.01

Over 5.533%3.04

Under 5.567%1.49

Over 6.519%5.17

Under 6.581%1.24

Expected total: 4.7

HT corners

Indicative

Over 3.571%1.41

Under 3.529%3.44

Over 4.553%1.89

Under 4.547%2.12

Over 5.535%2.83

Under 5.565%1.55

Over 6.521%4.70

Under 6.579%1.27

Expected total: 4.8

Yellow cards (match total)

Indicative

Over 2.560%1.68

Under 2.540%2.48

Over 3.537%2.68

Under 3.563%1.59

Over 4.520%5.00

Under 4.580%1.25

Over 5.59%10.74

Under 5.591%1.10

Expected total: 3.1

MA anytime goalscorer

Indicative

low sample (n=1)

S. Rahimi (Attacker)67%1.49

S. Amrabat (Midfielder)23%4.43

H. Mendyl (?)23%4.43

N. Boujellab (?)23%4.43

Y. Belhanda (?)23%4.43

A. Taarabt (?)23%4.43

M. El Haddadi (?)23%4.43

O. El Kaddouri (?)23%4.43

Expected total: 2.9

HT anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

F. Pierrot (Attacker)12%8.24

D. Nazon (Attacker)12%8.24

B. Chevreuil (?)4%23.70

I. Rouaud (?)4%23.70

S. Séance (?)4%23.70

B. Labissiere (?)4%23.70

S. Lambese (?)4%23.70

S. Nordé (?)4%23.70

Expected total: 0.5

Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 2.56, away 0.43). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.