Brazil vs Haiti

Group C · Matchday 2

· Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia

Group C standings →Bracket →BR 100% · HT 0% to advance

Brazil

86%

3–0

Haiti

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Goals (3)

23'

M. Cunha

Brazil

36'

M. Cunha

Brazil

45'

Vinicius Junior

assist: Lucas Paqueta

Brazil

Cards (4)

C. Arcus

Haiti

49'

F. Pierrot

Haiti

65'

Douglas Santos

Brazil

72'

D. Jean Jacques

Haiti

Substitutions (10)

40'

↑ Rayan for Raphinha

Brazil

46'

↑ D. Simon for C. Arcus

Haiti

46'

↑ W. Isidor for F. Pierrot

Haiti

62'

↑ Louicius Deedson for Josue Casimir

Haiti

64'

↑ G. Martinelli for Lucas Paqueta

Brazil

64'

↑ Endrick for M. Cunha

Brazil

71'

↑ L. Joseph for R. Providence

Haiti

81'

↑ D. Etienne for J. Bellegarde

Haiti

81'

↑ Ederson for Bruno Guimaraes

Brazil

81'

↑ Danilo Santos for Vinicius Junior

Brazil

Match stats

57%Possession43%

8Shots8

5Shots on target3

1.50Expected goals0.30

4Corners4

12Fouls15

8Offsides4

3Saves2

89%Pass accuracy83%

Top performer

M. Cunha

Brazil · 2 goals

Lineups

Brazil4-2-3-1

Haiti5-4-1

What's at stake

Matchday 2, Group C. The losing side here typically needs a Matchday 3 win plus favourable other-game results to advance.

Season form comparison

sample home 5 · away 3

2.00

Goals / match

0.67

0.80

Conceded / match

2.67

60%

BTTS rate

33%

40%

Clean sheet rate

1.57

xG / match (club)

0.00

4.6

Corners / match

4.8

2.0

Yellows / match

1.6

58%

Possession

53%

Brazil · last 5

Morocco1-113 June WH

Haiti3-020 June WA

Scotland0-324 June WH

Japan2-129 June LH

Norway1-25 July

Haiti · last 3

Scotland0-114 June LA

Brazil3-020 June LA

Morocco4-224 June

Head to head · 1 meetings

Brazil wins

Draws

Haiti wins

Last: Brazil 7-1 Haiti (2016-06-08)avg 8.0 goals

Absences

model swing: 0 / 0 pp

Brazil

No known absences.

Haiti

No known absences.

Win probability

Pre-match

The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.

Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.

The model's read

High confidence

Result: Brazil are strong favourites at 86%.
Goals: Goals expected. Over 2.5 lands 59% of the time.
Both score: Expect at least one clean sheet. Both-teams-score is just 28%.

Most likely score 2-0 (17%)

Why the model leans this way

Factor contributions

home←·→away

Rest days

-6.0%/+6.0%

Club xG form

-1.1%/-4.7%

Set pieces

+0.4%/-0.9%

Travel

0.0%/-1.0%

Two-model view

Second model api-football

Two models diverge

Brazil

45%

Draw

45%

Haiti

10%

Their internal ratings (0-100)

100·

Form

·0

100·

Attack

·0

50·

Defence

·50

Their advice: Combo Double chance : Brazil or draw and -3.5 goals

Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.

Match analysis

Score-line probability

brighter = more likely

Brazil goals

0123456

Haiti goals

Most likely: 2-0 17%, 3-0 16%, 1-0 12%. Outlined cells are draws.

Total goals

over 2.5 = 57%

Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.

Team comparison

BrazilHaiti

Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.

Fair odds for every market

How to use this

Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.

Match result

Home win86%1.17

Draw11%8.76

Away win3%34.20

Double chance

Home or draw97%1.03

Home or away89%1.13

Draw or away14%6.98

Draw no bet

Home (DNB)97%1.03

Away (DNB)3%30.30

Total goals

Over 0.595%1.06

Under 0.55%19.14

Over 1.582%1.22

Under 1.518%5.45

Over 2.559%1.69

Under 2.541%2.45

Over 3.537%2.72

Under 3.563%1.58

Over 4.520%5.09

Under 4.580%1.24

Odd / even goals

Odd49%2.05

Even51%1.95

Exact total goals

0 goals5%19.14

1 goals13%7.63

2 goals22%4.45

3 goals22%4.47

4 goals17%5.82

5 goals11%9.48

6+ goals9%11.00

Both teams to score

Yes28%3.54

No72%1.39

Team totals

Home over 0.593%1.07

Home over 1.575%1.33

Home over 2.551%1.96

Away over 0.530%3.38

Away over 1.55%20.44

Away over 2.51%180.11

Clean sheet

Home clean sheet70%1.42

Away clean sheet7%15.15

Win to nil

Home win to nil65%1.53

Away win to nil1%72.58

Asian handicap (home)

Home -2.544%2.29

Home -1.567%1.49

Home -0.586%1.16

Home +0.598%1.02

Home +1.599%+1.00

Home +2.599%+1.00

Correct score (top 8)

2-017%5.83

3-016%6.43

1-012%8.30

4-011%9.46

2-16%16.60

5-06%17.41

3-15%18.32

0-05%19.14

Half-time result

Home65%1.54

Draw30%3.31

Away5%21.20

Half-time goals

Over 0.575%1.34

Under 0.525%3.98

Over 1.540%2.49

Under 1.560%1.67

Half-time / full-time

Home/Home63%1.58

Home/Draw1%68.16

Home/Away<1%706.01

Draw/Home22%4.64

Draw/Draw7%13.66

Draw/Away1%73.30

Away/Home2%56.23

Away/Draw1%68.16

Away/Away1%67.94

Corners (match total)

Indicative

Over 8.561%1.63

Under 8.539%2.59

Over 9.548%2.07

Under 9.552%1.94

Over 10.536%2.78

Under 10.564%1.56

Over 11.525%3.96

Under 11.575%1.34

Over 12.517%5.98

Under 12.583%1.20

Expected total: 9.5

BR corners

Indicative

Over 3.569%1.44

Under 3.531%3.26

Over 4.551%1.97

Under 4.549%2.04

Over 5.533%2.99

Under 5.567%1.50

Over 6.520%5.06

Under 6.580%1.25

Expected total: 4.7

HT corners

Indicative

Over 3.571%1.41

Under 3.529%3.44

Over 4.553%1.89

Under 4.547%2.12

Over 5.535%2.83

Under 5.565%1.55

Over 6.521%4.70

Under 6.579%1.27

Expected total: 4.8

Yellow cards (match total)

Indicative

Over 2.570%1.43

Under 2.530%3.31

Over 3.549%2.06

Under 3.551%1.95

Over 4.529%3.39

Under 4.571%1.42

Over 5.516%6.38

Under 5.584%1.19

Expected total: 3.6

BR anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

Philippe Coutinho (?)24%4.20

Arthur (?)24%4.20

Malcom (?)24%4.20

Miranda (?)24%4.20

Dani Alves (?)24%4.20

Felipe (?)24%4.20

Claudinho (?)24%4.20

Bento (?)24%4.20

Expected total: 2.2

HT anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

F. Pierrot (Attacker)10%10.01

D. Nazon (Attacker)10%10.01

B. Chevreuil (?)3%28.99

I. Rouaud (?)3%28.99

S. Séance (?)3%28.99

B. Labissiere (?)3%28.99

S. Lambese (?)3%28.99

S. Nordé (?)3%28.99

Expected total: 0.4

Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 2.72, away 0.35). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.