Scotland vs Brazil

Group C · Matchday 3

· Hard Rock Stadium, Miami

Group C standings →Bracket →GB-SCT 0% · BR 100% to advance

Scotland

0–3

Brazil

70%

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Goals (3)

Vinicius Junior

Brazil

45'

Vinicius Junior

assist: Bruno Guimaraes

Brazil

60'

M. Cunha

assist: Bruno Guimaraes

Brazil

Cards (3)

62'

Danilo

Brazil

82'

Fabinho

Brazil

89'

Ryan Christie

Scotland

Substitutions (10)

46'

↑ K. Tierney for A. Robertson

Scotland

65'

↑ Fabinho for Casemiro

Brazil

66'

↑ G. Martinelli for Lucas Paqueta

Brazil

76'

↑ Neymar for M. Cunha

Brazil

82'

↑ Alex Sandro for Douglas Santos

Brazil

82'

↑ Endrick for Rayan

Brazil

82'

↑ R. Christie for B. Gannon-Doak

Scotland

82'

↑ A. Ralston for N. Patterson

Scotland

91'

↑ C. Adams for L. Shankland

Scotland

91'

↑ F. Curtis for J. McGinn

Scotland

Match stats

47%Possession53%

13Shots20

4Shots on target9

0.87Expected goals4.41

6Corners6

10Fouls9

0Offsides1

5Saves4

90%Pass accuracy93%

Top performer

Vinicius Junior

Brazil · 2 goals

Lineups

Scotland4-4-1-1

Brazil4-3-3

What's at stake

Matchday 3, final group game. Both sides know the exact result they need.

Season form comparison

sample home 3 · away 5

0.33

Goals / match

2.00

1.33

Conceded / match

0.80

BTTS rate

60%

33%

Clean sheet rate

40%

1.28

xG / match (club)

1.57

5.8

Corners / match

4.6

1.6

Yellows / match

2.0

55%

Possession

58%

Scotland · last 3

Brazil · last 5

Scotland0-324 June WH

Japan2-129 June LH

Norway1-25 July

Head to head · 1 meetings

Scotland wins

Draws

Brazil wins

Last: Scotland 0-0 Brazil (2026-06-24)avg 0.0 goals

Absences

model swing: 0 / 0 pp

Scotland

No known absences.

Brazil

No known absences.

Win probability

Pre-match

The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.

Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.

The model's read

High confidence

Result: Brazil are strong favourites at 70%.
Goals: A low-scoring game looks likely. Under 2.5 is favoured (63%).
Both score: Expect at least one clean sheet. Both-teams-score is just 27%.

Most likely score 0-1 (20%)

Why the model leans this way

Factor contributions

home←·→away

Rest days

+6.0%/-6.0%

Head-to-head

-3.4%/+3.4%

Club xG form

-4.0%/-1.4%

Set pieces

+1.1%/-0.9%

Travel

0.0%/-1.0%

Two-model view

Second model api-football

Two models moderately agree

Scotland

10%

Draw

45%

Brazil

45%

Their internal ratings (0-100)

43·

Form

·57

20·

Attack

·80

50·

Defence

·50

Their advice: Combo Double chance : draw or Brazil and -3.5 goals

Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.

Match analysis

Score-line probability

brighter = more likely

Scotland goals

0123456

Brazil goals

Most likely: 0-1 20%, 0-2 18%, 0-0 12%. Outlined cells are draws.

Total goals

over 2.5 = 37%

Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.

Team comparison

ScotlandBrazil

Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.

Fair odds for every market

How to use this

Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.

Match result

Home win7%14.47

Draw23%4.42

Away win70%1.42

Double chance

Home or draw30%3.39

Home or away77%1.29

Draw or away93%1.07

Draw no bet

Home (DNB)9%11.20

Away (DNB)91%1.10

Total goals

Over 0.588%1.14

Under 0.512%8.01

Over 1.565%1.55

Under 1.535%2.83

Over 2.537%2.72

Under 2.563%1.58

Over 3.517%5.76

Under 3.583%1.21

Over 4.57%14.57

Under 4.593%1.07

Odd / even goals

Odd47%2.11

Even53%1.90

Exact total goals

0 goals12%8.01

1 goals23%4.38

2 goals28%3.58

3 goals19%5.15

4 goals11%9.53

5 goals5%22.01

6+ goals2%43.04

Both teams to score

Yes27%3.69

No73%1.37

Team totals

Home over 0.531%3.19

Home over 1.56%18.10

Home over 2.51%149.24

Away over 0.583%1.20

Away over 1.553%1.87

Away over 2.527%3.76

Clean sheet

Home clean sheet17%5.98

Away clean sheet69%1.46

Win to nil

Home win to nil4%23.59

Away win to nil56%1.78

Asian handicap (home)

Home -2.5<1%758.46

Home -1.51%87.58

Home -0.56%16.45

Home +0.529%3.48

Home +1.556%1.79

Home +2.579%1.27

Correct score (top 8)

0-120%5.12

0-218%5.45

0-012%8.01

0-311%9.14

1-19%11.46

1-27%14.49

0-45%20.44

1-34%24.30

Half-time result

Home7%13.45

Draw43%2.32

Away49%2.02

Half-time goals

Over 0.562%1.61

Under 0.538%2.65

Over 1.525%3.93

Under 1.575%1.34

Half-time / full-time

Home/Home4%28.41

Home/Draw2%42.55

Home/Away2%63.96

Draw/Home3%30.16

Draw/Draw16%6.29

Draw/Away24%4.19

Away/Home<1%402.14

Away/Draw2%42.55

Away/Away47%2.13

Corners (match total)

Indicative

Over 8.564%1.56

Under 8.536%2.79

Over 9.551%1.94

Under 9.549%2.06

Over 10.539%2.57

Under 10.561%1.64

Over 11.528%3.59

Under 11.572%1.39

Over 12.519%5.31

Under 12.581%1.23

Expected total: 9.8

GB-SCT corners

Indicative

Over 3.574%1.34

Under 3.526%3.90

Over 4.557%1.75

Under 4.543%2.33

Over 5.540%2.53

Under 5.560%1.65

Over 6.525%4.04

Under 6.575%1.33

Expected total: 5.1

BR corners

Indicative

Over 3.569%1.44

Under 3.531%3.26

Over 4.551%1.97

Under 4.549%2.04

Over 5.533%2.99

Under 5.567%1.50

Over 6.520%5.06

Under 6.580%1.25

Expected total: 4.7

Yellow cards (match total)

Indicative

Over 2.572%1.38

Under 2.528%3.63

Over 3.552%1.93

Under 3.548%2.08

Over 4.532%3.08

Under 4.568%1.48

Over 5.518%5.59

Under 5.582%1.22

Expected total: 3.8

GB-SCT anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

R. Jack (?)4%27.10

R. Snodgrass (?)4%27.10

S. Armstrong (?)4%27.10

C. Paterson (?)4%27.10

J. Fleck (?)4%27.10

M. Phillips (?)4%27.10

B. McKay (?)4%27.10

D. Marshall (?)4%27.10

Expected total: 0.3

BR anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

Philippe Coutinho (?)16%6.11

Arthur (?)16%6.11

Malcom (?)16%6.11

Miranda (?)16%6.11

Dani Alves (?)16%6.11

Felipe (?)16%6.11

Claudinho (?)16%6.11

Bento (?)16%6.11

Expected total: 1.4

Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 0.38, away 1.79). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.