Canada vs Morocco

Group null · Matchday 5

· NRG Stadium, Houston

Group standings →Bracket →CA 100% · MA 100% to advance

Canada

19%

FT

0–3

Morocco

53%

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Goals (3)

50'

A. Ounahi

assist: A. Hakimi

Morocco
82'

A. Ounahi

assist: B. Diaz

Morocco
98'

S. Rahimi

assist: B. Diaz

Morocco

Cards (8)

20'

R. Halhal

Morocco
40'

A. Hakimi

Morocco
40'

R. Laryea

Canada
43'

J. David

Canada
45'

A. Ounahi

Morocco
51'

B. El Khannouss

Morocco
49'

L. De Fougerolles

Canada
67'

C. Larin

Canada

Substitutions (10)

22'

↑ S. Rahimi for I. Saibari

Morocco
63'

↑ Cyle Larin for Tani Oluwaseyi

Canada
63'

↑ S. Amrabat for A. Bouaddi

Morocco
63'

↑ C. Talbi for B. El Khannouss

Morocco
78'

↑ P. David for A. Ahmed

Canada
79'

↑ J. Shaffelburg for R. Laryea

Canada
87'

↑ M. Saadane for I. Diop

Morocco
87'

↑ S. El Mourabet for A. Ounahi

Morocco
87'

↑ J. Nelson for T. Buchanan

Canada
87'

↑ J. Osorio for N. Sigur

Canada

Match stats

45%Possession55%
12Shots4
3Shots on target3
11Corners1
24Fouls14
2Offsides3
1Saves3

Top performer

AO

A. Ounahi

Morocco · 2 goals

Lineups

Canada4-4-2

Morocco4-2-3-1

What's at stake

Knockout fixture, single elimination.

Season form comparison

sample home 5 · away 6

1.80
Goals / match
1.67
1.20
Conceded / match
1.00
40%
BTTS rate
50%
40%
Clean sheet rate
33%
1.33
xG / match (club)
0.95
5.5
Corners / match
4.6
2.0
Yellows / match
1.4
52%
Possession
54%

Head to head · 1 meetings

0

Canada wins

0

Draws

1

Morocco wins

Last: Canada 1-2 Morocco (2022-12-01)avg 3.0 goals

Absences

model swing: 0 / 0 pp

Canada

No known absences.

Morocco

No known absences.

Win probability

Pre-match

The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.

Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.

The model's read

Medium confidence

  • Result: Morocco are slight favourites at 53%, but it is far from settled.

  • Goals: A low-scoring game looks likely. Under 2.5 is favoured (56%).

Most likely score 1-1 (13%)

Why the model leans this way

Factor contributions

home←·→away

Rest days
+6.0%/-6.0%
Club xG form
-2.8%/-1.6%

Two-model view

Second model api-football

Two models moderately agree

Canada

10%

Draw

45%

Morocco

45%

Their internal ratings (0-100)

41·
Form
·59
53·
Attack
·47
57·
Defence
·43

Their advice: Double chance : draw or Morocco

Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.

Match analysis

Score-line probability

brighter = more likely

Canada goals
10
12
11
6
6
13
9
5
5
0123456

Morocco goals

Most likely: 1-1 13%, 0-1 12%, 0-2 11%. Outlined cells are draws.

Total goals

over 2.5 = 44%

10
0
18
1
28
2
21
3
13
4
6
5
4
6+

Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.

Team comparison

AttackDefenceRatingSet-pieceattackSet-piecedefence
CanadaMorocco

Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.

Fair odds for every market

How to use this

Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.

Match result

Home win19%5.20
Draw28%3.54
Away win53%1.90

Double chance

Home or draw47%2.11
Home or away72%1.39
Draw or away81%1.24

Draw no bet

Home (DNB)27%3.73
Away (DNB)73%1.37

Total goals

Over 0.590%1.12
Under 0.510%9.63
Over 1.571%1.40
Under 1.529%3.47
Over 2.544%2.29
Under 2.556%1.77
Over 3.523%4.42
Under 3.577%1.29
Over 4.510%10.11
Under 4.590%1.11

Odd / even goals

Odd47%2.15
Even53%1.87

Exact total goals

0 goals10%9.63
1 goals18%5.43
2 goals28%3.63
3 goals21%4.76
4 goals13%7.85
5 goals6%16.19
6+ goals4%26.93

Both teams to score

Yes47%2.14
No53%1.88

Team totals

Home over 0.557%1.76
Home over 1.521%4.85
Home over 2.55%18.69
Away over 0.579%1.26
Away over 1.547%2.13
Away over 2.521%4.71

Clean sheet

Home clean sheet21%4.87
Away clean sheet43%2.32

Win to nil

Home win to nil10%9.86
Away win to nil33%3.05

Asian handicap (home)

Home -2.52%66.83
Home -1.56%15.95
Home -0.518%5.44
Home +0.547%2.14
Home +1.571%1.41
Home +2.588%1.14

Correct score (top 8)

1-113%7.51
0-112%8.01
0-211%9.01
0-010%9.63
1-29%10.72
1-06%16.90
0-36%17.08
2-15%20.17

Half-time result

Home17%5.72
Draw43%2.31
Away39%2.55

Half-time goals

Over 0.566%1.51
Under 0.534%2.98
Over 1.530%3.36
Under 1.570%1.42

Half-time / full-time

Home/Home11%9.27
Home/Draw4%22.95
Home/Away2%42.62
Draw/Home8%12.44
Draw/Draw16%6.06
Draw/Away19%5.33
Away/Home1%92.77
Away/Draw4%22.95
Away/Away34%2.96

Corners (match total)

Indicative
Over 8.567%1.50
Under 8.533%3.00
Over 9.554%1.85
Under 9.546%2.18
Over 10.542%2.40
Under 10.558%1.71
Over 11.530%3.30
Under 11.570%1.43
Over 12.521%4.81
Under 12.579%1.26

Expected total: 10.0

CA corners

Indicative
Over 3.578%1.29
Under 3.522%4.46
Over 4.561%1.63
Under 4.539%2.58
Over 5.544%2.28
Under 5.556%1.78
Over 6.528%3.52
Under 6.572%1.40

Expected total: 5.3

MA corners

Indicative
Over 3.569%1.45
Under 3.531%3.21
Over 4.550%1.99
Under 4.550%2.01
Over 5.533%3.04
Under 5.567%1.49
Over 6.519%5.17
Under 6.581%1.24

Expected total: 4.7

Yellow cards (match total)

Indicative
Over 2.568%1.48
Under 2.532%3.09
Over 3.546%2.17
Under 3.554%1.85
Over 4.527%3.68
Under 4.573%1.37
Over 5.514%7.12
Under 5.586%1.16

Expected total: 3.5

CA anytime goalscorer

Indicative

low sample (n=1)

N. Saliba (Midfielder)9%10.85
J. Leutwiler (?)8%12.39
L. Cavallini (?)8%12.39
D. Wotherspoon (?)8%12.39
H. Paton (?)8%12.39
A. Akinola (?)8%12.39
T. Ricketts (?)8%12.39
T. Borges (?)8%12.39

Expected total: 0.7

MA anytime goalscorer

Indicative

low sample (n=1)

S. Rahimi (Attacker)50%2.01
S. Amrabat (Midfielder)15%6.83
H. Mendyl (?)15%6.83
N. Boujellab (?)15%6.83
Y. Belhanda (?)15%6.83
A. Taarabt (?)15%6.83
M. El Haddadi (?)15%6.83
O. El Kaddouri (?)15%6.83

Expected total: 1.8

Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 0.84, away 1.58). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.