Brazil vs Norway

Group null · Matchday 5

· MetLife Stadium, New York

Group standings →Bracket →BR 100% · NO 100% to advance

Brazil

55%

FT

1–2

Norway

20%

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Goals (3)

79'

E. Haaland

assist: A. Schjelderup

Norway
90'

E. Haaland

assist: A. Schjelderup

Norway
100'

Neymarpen

Brazil

Missed penalties (1)

14'

Bruno Guimaraesmiss

Brazil

Cards (1)

96'

Neymar

Brazil

Substitutions (8)

46'

↑ O. Bobb for A. Sorloth

Norway
46'

↑ A. Schjelderup for A. Nusa

Norway
58'

↑ Endrick for M. Cunha

Brazil
63'

↑ F. Aursnes for J. Ryerson

Norway
67'

↑ Neymar for G. Martinelli

Brazil
67'

↑ Danilo Santos for Rayan

Brazil
79'

↑ Ederson for Bruno Guimaraes

Brazil
95'

↑ L. Ostigard for D. Wolfe

Norway

Match stats

33%Possession67%
14Shots9
4Shots on target5
1.93Expected goals0.73
5Corners5
7Fouls6
1Offsides1
3Saves4
85%Pass accuracy91%

Top performer

EH

E. Haaland

Norway · 2 goals

Lineups

Brazil4-4-2

Norway4-3-3

What's at stake

Knockout fixture, single elimination.

Season form comparison

sample home 5 · away 6

2.00
Goals / match
2.17
0.80
Conceded / match
1.83
60%
BTTS rate
100%
40%
Clean sheet rate
0%
1.57
xG / match (club)
3.63
4.6
Corners / match
6.3
2.0
Yellows / match
1.2
58%
Possession
58%

Head to head · 1 meetings

0

Brazil wins

1

Draws

0

Norway wins

Last: Brazil 0-0 Norway (2026-07-05)avg 0.0 goals

Absences

model swing: 0 / 0 pp

Brazil

No known absences.

Norway

No known absences.

Win probability

Pre-match

The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.

Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.

The model's read

Medium confidence

  • Result: Brazil are slight favourites at 55%, but it is far from settled.

  • Goals: Goals expected. Over 2.5 lands 57% of the time.

  • Both score: Both teams to score is likely (56%).

Most likely score 1-1 (12%)

Why the model leans this way

Factor contributions

home←·→away

Rest days
+6.0%/-6.0%
Club xG form
-5.1%/+3.6%
Set pieces
-1.6%/+1.1%
Travel
0.0%/-1.0%

Two-model view

Second model api-football

Two models moderately agree

Brazil

35%

Draw

35%

Norway

30%

Their internal ratings (0-100)

53·
Form
·47
47·
Attack
·53
80·
Defence
·20

Their advice: Double chance : Brazil or draw

Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.

Match analysis

Score-line probability

brighter = more likely

Brazil goals
7
4
9
12
5
10
10
5
6
6
0123456

Norway goals

Most likely: 1-1 12%, 2-1 10%, 2-0 10%. Outlined cells are draws.

Total goals

over 2.5 = 56%

7
0
13
1
24
2
22
3
17
4
10
5
8
6+

Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.

Team comparison

AttackDefenceRatingSet-pieceattackSet-piecedefence
BrazilNorway

Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.

Fair odds for every market

How to use this

Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.

Match result

Home win55%1.81
Draw25%3.99
Away win20%5.11

Double chance

Home or draw80%1.24
Home or away75%1.33
Draw or away45%2.24

Draw no bet

Home (DNB)74%1.35
Away (DNB)26%3.83

Total goals

Over 0.593%1.07
Under 0.57%15.23
Over 1.581%1.24
Under 1.519%5.19
Over 2.557%1.77
Under 2.543%2.31
Over 3.534%2.92
Under 3.566%1.52
Over 4.518%5.65
Under 4.582%1.21

Odd / even goals

Odd47%2.12
Even53%1.89

Exact total goals

0 goals7%15.23
1 goals13%7.87
2 goals24%4.15
3 goals22%4.47
4 goals17%6.05
5 goals10%10.24
6+ goals8%12.62

Both teams to score

Yes56%1.77
No44%2.29

Team totals

Home over 0.585%1.17
Home over 1.557%1.75
Home over 2.530%3.33
Away over 0.565%1.55
Away over 1.528%3.60
Away over 2.59%11.46

Clean sheet

Home clean sheet35%2.82
Away clean sheet15%6.79

Win to nil

Home win to nil29%3.46
Away win to nil8%12.26

Asian handicap (home)

Home -2.516%6.13
Home -1.534%2.94
Home -0.557%1.77
Home +0.581%1.23
Home +1.593%1.08
Home +2.598%1.02

Correct score (top 8)

1-112%8.54
2-110%10.07
2-010%10.44
1-09%11.56
0-07%15.23
3-16%15.76
3-06%16.35
1-25%18.60

Half-time result

Home43%2.33
Draw38%2.61
Away19%5.30

Half-time goals

Over 0.574%1.36
Under 0.526%3.78
Over 1.538%2.61
Under 1.562%1.62

Half-time / full-time

Home/Home37%2.71
Home/Draw5%21.67
Home/Away1%71.27
Draw/Home18%5.58
Draw/Draw13%7.81
Draw/Away8%13.28
Away/Home3%32.45
Away/Draw5%21.67
Away/Away11%8.96

Corners (match total)

Indicative
Over 8.572%1.39
Under 8.528%3.55
Over 9.560%1.67
Under 9.540%2.50
Over 10.548%2.10
Under 10.552%1.91
Over 11.536%2.79
Under 11.564%1.56
Over 12.526%3.92
Under 12.574%1.34

Expected total: 10.5

BR corners

Indicative
Over 3.569%1.44
Under 3.531%3.26
Over 4.551%1.97
Under 4.549%2.04
Over 5.533%2.99
Under 5.567%1.50
Over 6.520%5.06
Under 6.580%1.25

Expected total: 4.7

NO corners

Indicative
Over 3.583%1.21
Under 3.517%5.74
Over 4.568%1.47
Under 4.532%3.14
Over 5.551%1.94
Under 5.549%2.06
Over 6.535%2.82
Under 6.565%1.55

Expected total: 5.8

Yellow cards (match total)

Indicative
Over 2.565%1.53
Under 2.535%2.89
Over 3.543%2.30
Under 3.557%1.77
Over 4.525%4.01
Under 4.575%1.33
Over 5.513%7.99
Under 5.587%1.14

Expected total: 3.4

BR anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

Philippe Coutinho (?)17%5.73
Arthur (?)17%5.73
Malcom (?)17%5.73
Miranda (?)17%5.73
Dani Alves (?)17%5.73
Felipe (?)17%5.73
Claudinho (?)17%5.73
Bento (?)17%5.73

Expected total: 1.5

NO anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

A. Hansen (?)10%10.15
Tore Reginiussen (?)10%10.15
Håvard Nordtveit (?)10%10.15
S. Johansen (?)10%10.15
R. Jarstein (?)10%10.15
O. Omoijuanfo (?)10%10.15
S. Rossbach (?)10%10.15
T. Lehne Olsen (?)10%10.15

Expected total: 0.8

Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 1.92, away 1.04). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.