All matches
Brazil vs Norway
Group null · Matchday 5
· MetLife Stadium, New York
Goals (3)
Missed penalties (1)
Cards (1)
96'
Brazil
Neymar
Substitutions (8)
46'
Norway
↑ O. Bobb for A. Sorloth
46'Norway
↑ A. Schjelderup for A. Nusa
58'Brazil
↑ Endrick for M. Cunha
63'Norway
↑ F. Aursnes for J. Ryerson
67'Brazil
↑ Neymar for G. Martinelli
67'Brazil
↑ Danilo Santos for Rayan
79'Brazil
↑ Ederson for Bruno Guimaraes
95'Norway
↑ L. Ostigard for D. Wolfe
Match stats
33%Possession67%
14Shots9
4Shots on target5
1.93Expected goals0.73
5Corners5
7Fouls6
1Offsides1
3Saves4
85%Pass accuracy91%
Top performer
EHE. Haaland
Norway · 2 goals
Lineups
Brazil4-4-2
What's at stake
Knockout fixture, single elimination.
Season form comparison
sample home 5 · away 6
2.00
Goals / match
2.17
0.80
Conceded / match
1.83
60%
BTTS rate
100%
40%
Clean sheet rate
0%
1.57
xG / match (club)
3.63
4.6
Corners / match
6.3
2.0
Yellows / match
1.2
58%
Possession
58%
Brazil · last 5
Head to head · 1 meetings
0
Brazil wins
1
Draws
0
Norway wins
Last: Brazil 0-0 Norway (2026-07-05)avg 0.0 goals
Absences
model swing: 0 / 0 pp
Brazil
No known absences.
Norway
No known absences.
Win probability
Pre-match
The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.
Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.
The model's read
Medium confidenceResult: Brazil are slight favourites at 55%, but it is far from settled.
Goals: Goals expected. Over 2.5 lands 57% of the time.
Both score: Both teams to score is likely (56%).
Most likely score 1-1 (12%)
Why the model leans this way
Factor contributions
home←·→away
Rest days
+6.0%/-6.0%
Club xG form
-5.1%/+3.6%
Set pieces
-1.6%/+1.1%
Travel
0.0%/-1.0%
Two-model view
Second model api-football
Two models moderately agreeBrazil
35%
Draw
35%
Norway
30%
Their internal ratings (0-100)
53·
Form
·47
47·
Attack
·53
80·
Defence
·20
Their advice: Double chance : Brazil or draw
Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.
Match analysis
Score-line probability
brighter = more likely
Brazil goals
7
4
9
12
5
10
10
5
6
6
0123456
Norway goals
Most likely: 1-1 12%, 2-1 10%, 2-0 10%. Outlined cells are draws.
Total goals
over 2.5 = 56%
70
131
242
223
174
105
86+
Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.
Team comparison
BrazilNorway
Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.
Fair odds for every market
How to use this
Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.
Match result
Home win55%1.81
Draw25%3.99
Away win20%5.11
Double chance
Home or draw80%1.24
Home or away75%1.33
Draw or away45%2.24
Draw no bet
Home (DNB)74%1.35
Away (DNB)26%3.83
Total goals
Over 0.593%1.07
Under 0.57%15.23
Over 1.581%1.24
Under 1.519%5.19
Over 2.557%1.77
Under 2.543%2.31
Over 3.534%2.92
Under 3.566%1.52
Over 4.518%5.65
Under 4.582%1.21
Odd / even goals
Odd47%2.12
Even53%1.89
Exact total goals
0 goals7%15.23
1 goals13%7.87
2 goals24%4.15
3 goals22%4.47
4 goals17%6.05
5 goals10%10.24
6+ goals8%12.62
Both teams to score
Yes56%1.77
No44%2.29
Team totals
Home over 0.585%1.17
Home over 1.557%1.75
Home over 2.530%3.33
Away over 0.565%1.55
Away over 1.528%3.60
Away over 2.59%11.46
Clean sheet
Home clean sheet35%2.82
Away clean sheet15%6.79
Win to nil
Home win to nil29%3.46
Away win to nil8%12.26
Asian handicap (home)
Home -2.516%6.13
Home -1.534%2.94
Home -0.557%1.77
Home +0.581%1.23
Home +1.593%1.08
Home +2.598%1.02
Correct score (top 8)
1-112%8.54
2-110%10.07
2-010%10.44
1-09%11.56
0-07%15.23
3-16%15.76
3-06%16.35
1-25%18.60
Half-time result
Home43%2.33
Draw38%2.61
Away19%5.30
Half-time goals
Over 0.574%1.36
Under 0.526%3.78
Over 1.538%2.61
Under 1.562%1.62
Half-time / full-time
Home/Home37%2.71
Home/Draw5%21.67
Home/Away1%71.27
Draw/Home18%5.58
Draw/Draw13%7.81
Draw/Away8%13.28
Away/Home3%32.45
Away/Draw5%21.67
Away/Away11%8.96
Corners (match total)
IndicativeOver 8.572%1.39
Under 8.528%3.55
Over 9.560%1.67
Under 9.540%2.50
Over 10.548%2.10
Under 10.552%1.91
Over 11.536%2.79
Under 11.564%1.56
Over 12.526%3.92
Under 12.574%1.34
Expected total: 10.5
BR corners
IndicativeOver 3.569%1.44
Under 3.531%3.26
Over 4.551%1.97
Under 4.549%2.04
Over 5.533%2.99
Under 5.567%1.50
Over 6.520%5.06
Under 6.580%1.25
Expected total: 4.7
NO corners
IndicativeOver 3.583%1.21
Under 3.517%5.74
Over 4.568%1.47
Under 4.532%3.14
Over 5.551%1.94
Under 5.549%2.06
Over 6.535%2.82
Under 6.565%1.55
Expected total: 5.8
Yellow cards (match total)
IndicativeOver 2.565%1.53
Under 2.535%2.89
Over 3.543%2.30
Under 3.557%1.77
Over 4.525%4.01
Under 4.575%1.33
Over 5.513%7.99
Under 5.587%1.14
Expected total: 3.4
BR anytime goalscorer
Indicativevery low sample (n=0)
Philippe Coutinho (?)17%5.73
Arthur (?)17%5.73
Malcom (?)17%5.73
Miranda (?)17%5.73
Dani Alves (?)17%5.73
Felipe (?)17%5.73
Claudinho (?)17%5.73
Bento (?)17%5.73
Expected total: 1.5
NO anytime goalscorer
Indicativevery low sample (n=0)
A. Hansen (?)10%10.15
Tore Reginiussen (?)10%10.15
Håvard Nordtveit (?)10%10.15
S. Johansen (?)10%10.15
R. Jarstein (?)10%10.15
O. Omoijuanfo (?)10%10.15
S. Rossbach (?)10%10.15
T. Lehne Olsen (?)10%10.15
Expected total: 0.8
Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 1.92, away 1.04). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.