WC26

Predictor

Tournament

Tournament AwardsAll MatchesFinal OddsKnockout BracketGroup Tables

Tracking

Report CardModel Track RecordValue BoardModel PicksMy Picks

Info

How It Works

Model estimates, not guarantees. A strong edge can still lose. For 18+ only. Bet only what you can afford to lose, and take a break if it stops being fun.

BracketValue boardAcca builderHow it worksTrack recordWC2026 Predictor

More

Tournament

Final OddsHow the outright winner odds finishedGroup TablesFinal standings, all 12 groupsValue BoardModel edge vs the market, graded

Picks & Tracking

Model PicksDaily auto-curated edge betsTrack RecordEvery logged pick, settledMy PicksYour own calls vs the modelReport CardModel accuracy + calibration

About

How It WorksModel methodology
AwardsMatchesReportRecordBracket
Team

Japan

Group F

Japan

Coach Hajime Moriyasu · Rating 1832

The model's outlook

Win the group
<1%
Reach last 32
99%+
Reach last 16
29%
Reach quarters
16%
Reach semis
6%
Reach final
2%
Win the World Cup
1%

Chance of still being alive at each stage, across 20,000 tournament simulations.

Team strengths

AttackDefenceRatingSet-pieceattackSet-piecedefence
Japan

Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.

Recent form

DWDL
DANetherlands flagNetherlands2-214 JuneWATunisia flagTunisia0-421 JuneDHSweden flagSweden1-125 JuneLABrazil flagBrazil2-129 June

Group F

1Netherlands3P72Japan3P53Sweden3P44Tunisia3P0

Squad (82)

Goalkeepers

K. Osako

K. Osako

Goalkeeper · 26

0

Goals

T. Hayakawa

T. Hayakawa

Goalkeeper · 26

0.00 G/90 · 0.03 A/90 · 6.95 rating · 2025-26

0

Goals

Defenders

Y. Nagatomo

Y. Nagatomo

Defender · 39

2

Goals

7

Asts

S. Taniguchi

S. Taniguchi

Defender · 34

1

Goals

Midfielders

Keito Nakamura

Keito Nakamura

Midfielder · 25

0.58

G/90

0.10

A/90

7.3

Rtg

Japan's knockout path

across 20k sims

R32 100%

vs Brazil

100% of paths

R16 29%

vs Norway

18% of paths

QF 16%

vs England

8% of paths

SF 6%

vs Argentina

3% of paths

Final 2%

vs Spain

1% of paths

Round of 32

  • Brazil100%

Round of 16

  • Norway18%
  • Ivory Coast11%

Quarter-final

  • England8%
  • Mexico3%
  • Ecuador3%
  • DR Congo1%

Semi-final

  • Argentina3%
  • Colombia2%
  • Switzerland1%
  • Australia<1%
  • Egypt<1%

Final

  • Spain1%
  • France1%
  • Portugal<1%
  • Belgium<1%
  • Netherlands<1%