Netherlands vs Japan
Group F · Matchday 1
· AT&T Stadium, Dallas
Goals (4)
Cards (3)
Crysencio Summerville
Memphis Depay
Micky van de Ven
Substitutions (10)
↑ J. Ito for D. Maeda
↑ M. Depay for D. Malen
↑ Q. Timber for T. Reijnders
↑ T. Koopmeiners for C. Summerville
↑ T. Tomiyasu for T. Watanabe
↑ Y. Sugawara for R. Doan
↑ K. Ogawa for T. Kubo
↑ N. Ake for R. Gravenberch
↑ K. Shiogai for A. Ueda
↑ B. Brobbey for C. Gakpo
Match stats
Top performer
VVV. van Dijk
Netherlands · 1 goal
Lineups
Netherlands4-3-3
Japan3-4-2-1
What's at stake
Matchday 1, Group F opener. A win swings ~30 percentage points of qualification odds.
Season form comparison
sample home 4 · away 4
Netherlands · last 4
Head to head · 2 meetings
1
Netherlands wins
1
Draws
0
Japan wins
Absences
model swing: 0 / 0 pp
Netherlands
No known absences.
Japan
No known absences.
Win probability
Pre-match
The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.
Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.
The model's read
Medium confidenceResult: Netherlands are slight favourites at 54%, but it is far from settled.
Goals: Goals are a coin-flip around the 2.5 line (over 52%).
Why the model leans this way
Factor contributions
home←·→away
Two-model view
Second model api-football
Two-model consensusNetherlands
50%
Draw
50%
Japan
0%
Their internal ratings (0-100)
Their advice: Double chance : Netherlands or draw
Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.
Key players to watch
Netherlands
No per-90 data for this squad yet.
Per-90 stats: Rising Transfers (risingtransfers.com), CC BY 4.0
Match analysis
Score-line probability
brighter = more likely
Japan goals
Most likely: 1-1 12%, 2-0 10%, 1-0 10%. Outlined cells are draws.
Total goals
over 2.5 = 52%
Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.
Team comparison
Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.
Fair odds for every market
How to use this
Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.
Match result
Double chance
Draw no bet
Total goals
Odd / even goals
Exact total goals
Both teams to score
Team totals
Clean sheet
Win to nil
Asian handicap (home)
Correct score (top 8)
Half-time result
Half-time goals
Half-time / full-time
Corners (match total)
IndicativeExpected total: 10.7
NL corners
IndicativeExpected total: 5.8
JP corners
IndicativeExpected total: 5.0
Yellow cards (match total)
IndicativeExpected total: 2.6
NL anytime goalscorer
Indicativevery low sample (n=0)
Expected total: 0.2
JP anytime goalscorer
Indicativelow sample (n=1)
Expected total: 0.8
Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 1.79, away 0.96). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.