Netherlands vs Sweden

Group F · Matchday 2

· NRG Stadium, Houston

Group F standings →Bracket →NL 100% · SE 100% to advance

Netherlands

71%

5–1

HT 2–0

Sweden

11%

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Goals (6)

Brian Brobbey

assist: Cody Gakpo

Netherlands

17'

Brian Brobbey

assist: Denzel Dumfries

Netherlands

47'

Cody Gakpo

assist: Denzel Dumfries

Netherlands

54'

Cody Gakpo

assist: Crysencio Summerville

Netherlands

59'

Anthony Elanga

assist: Alexander Isak

Sweden

89'

Crysencio Summerville

assist: Memphis Depay

Netherlands

Cards (3)

53'

Gabriel Gudmundsson

Sweden

75'

Yasin Ayari

Sweden

80'

Lucas Bergvall

Sweden

Substitutions (10)

46'

↑ Crysencio Summerville for Donyell Malen

Netherlands

55'

↑ A. Elanga for A. Bernhardsson

Sweden

56'

↑ Lucas Bergvall for Benjamin Nygren

Sweden

56'

↑ Besfort Zeneli for Jesper Karlström

Sweden

59'

↑ T. Koopmeiners for F. de Jong

Netherlands

59'

↑ G. Til for T. Reijnders

Netherlands

72'

↑ Memphis Depay for Brian Brobbey

Netherlands

79'

↑ Taha Abdi Ali for Yasin Ayari

Sweden

90'

↑ Noa Lang for Cody Gakpo

Netherlands

93'

↑ E. Stroud for G. Gudmundsson

Sweden

Match stats

51%Possession49%

10Shots16

7Shots on target8

2.47Expected goals0.98

2Corners5

9Fouls12

3Offsides3

7Saves2

88%Pass accuracy85%

Top performer

Cody Gakpo

Netherlands · 2 goals

Lineups

Netherlands4-3-3

Sweden3-1-4-2

What's at stake

Matchday 2, Group F. The losing side here typically needs a Matchday 3 win plus favourable other-game results to advance.

Season form comparison

sample home 4 · away 4

2.75

Goals / match

1.75

1.25

Conceded / match

2.50

100%

BTTS rate

75%

Clean sheet rate

2.08

xG / match (club)

1.02

7.4

Corners / match

6.0

1.3

Yellows / match

1.7

65%

Possession

55%

Netherlands · last 4

Sweden · last 4

Netherlands5-120 June DA

Japan1-125 June LA

France3-030 June

Head to head · 2 meetings

Netherlands wins

Draws

Sweden wins

Last: Netherlands 2-0 Sweden (2017-10-10)avg 2.0 goals

Absences

model swing: 0 / 0 pp

Netherlands

No known absences.

Sweden

No known absences.

Win probability

Pre-match

The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.

Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.

The model's read

High confidence

Result: Netherlands are strong favourites at 71%.
Goals: Goals expected. Over 2.5 lands 64% of the time.

Most likely score 2-0 (11%)

Why the model leans this way

Factor contributions

home←·→away

Club xG form

+3.3%/-5.0%

Travel

0.0%/-3.0%

Head-to-head

+1.3%/-1.3%

Set pieces

+1.3%/+0.0%

Two-model view

Second model api-football

Two models diverge

Netherlands

10%

Draw

45%

Sweden

45%

Their internal ratings (0-100)

25·

Form

·75

29·

Attack

·71

33·

Defence

·67

Their advice: Combo Winner : Sweden and +2.5 goals

Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.

Match analysis

Score-line probability

brighter = more likely

Netherlands goals

0123456

Sweden goals

Most likely: 2-0 11%, 2-1 9%, 3-0 9%. Outlined cells are draws.

Total goals

over 2.5 = 63%

Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.

Team comparison

NetherlandsSweden

Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.

Fair odds for every market

How to use this

Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.

Match result

Home win71%1.41

Draw18%5.48

Away win11%9.21

Double chance

Home or draw89%1.12

Home or away82%1.22

Draw or away29%3.44

Draw no bet

Home (DNB)87%1.15

Away (DNB)13%7.53

Total goals

Over 0.595%1.05

Under 0.55%21.53

Over 1.585%1.17

Under 1.515%6.77

Over 2.564%1.56

Under 2.536%2.80

Over 3.542%2.37

Under 3.558%1.73

Over 4.524%4.18

Under 4.576%1.31

Odd / even goals

Odd48%2.09

Even52%1.92

Exact total goals

0 goals5%21.53

1 goals10%9.88

2 goals21%4.76

3 goals22%4.53

4 goals18%5.48

5 goals12%8.27

6+ goals12%8.46

Both teams to score

Yes53%1.88

No47%2.13

Team totals

Home over 0.592%1.09

Home over 1.571%1.42

Home over 2.545%2.24

Away over 0.557%1.75

Away over 1.521%4.83

Away over 2.55%18.53

Clean sheet

Home clean sheet43%2.33

Away clean sheet9%11.76

Win to nil

Home win to nil38%2.61

Away win to nil4%25.93

Asian handicap (home)

Home -2.530%3.39

Home -1.551%1.97

Home -0.572%1.39

Home +0.590%1.11

Home +1.597%1.03

Home +2.599%1.01

Correct score (top 8)

2-011%9.00

2-19%10.67

3-09%10.96

1-19%11.64

1-08%12.47

3-18%12.98

4-06%17.78

4-15%21.07

Half-time result

Home54%1.84

Draw33%3.02

Away13%7.92

Half-time goals

Over 0.577%1.29

Under 0.523%4.43

Over 1.544%2.28

Under 1.556%1.78

Half-time / full-time

Home/Home50%2.00

Home/Draw3%28.79

Home/Away1%121.27

Draw/Home20%5.10

Draw/Draw9%10.74

Draw/Away4%23.88

Away/Home3%30.06

Away/Draw3%28.79

Away/Away6%17.17

Corners (match total)

Indicative

Over 8.581%1.24

Under 8.519%5.23

Over 9.571%1.41

Under 9.529%3.45

Over 10.560%1.67

Under 10.540%2.48

Over 11.548%2.09

Under 11.552%1.92

Over 12.537%2.73

Under 12.563%1.58

Expected total: 11.5

NL corners

Indicative

Over 3.583%1.21

Under 3.517%5.83

Over 4.568%1.46

Under 4.532%3.17

Over 5.552%1.93

Under 5.548%2.08

Over 6.536%2.79

Under 6.564%1.56

Expected total: 5.8

SE corners

Indicative

Over 3.582%1.22

Under 3.518%5.58

Over 4.567%1.48

Under 4.533%3.07

Over 5.551%1.98

Under 5.549%2.02

Over 6.535%2.88

Under 6.565%1.53

Expected total: 5.7

Yellow cards (match total)

Indicative

Over 2.562%1.60

Under 2.538%2.66

Over 3.540%2.49

Under 3.560%1.67

Over 4.522%4.49

Under 4.578%1.29

Over 5.511%9.31

Under 5.589%1.12

Expected total: 3.2

NL anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

J. Cillessen (?)22%4.58

L. Geertruida (Defender)7%14.03

Expected total: 0.3

SE anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

I. Kiese Thelin (?)8%12.36

M. Lustig (?)8%12.36

P. Bengtsson (?)8%12.36

O. Lewicki (?)8%12.36

K. Olsson (?)8%12.36

J. Johansson (?)8%12.36

L. Augustinsson (?)8%12.36

A. Tinnerholm (?)8%12.36

Expected total: 0.7

Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 2.46, away 0.84). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.