Team
Netherlands vs Sweden
Group F · Matchday 2
· NRG Stadium, Houston
Goals (6)
Cards (3)
53'
Sweden
Gabriel Gudmundsson
75'Sweden
Yasin Ayari
80'Sweden
Lucas Bergvall
Substitutions (10)
46'
Netherlands
↑ Crysencio Summerville for Donyell Malen
55'Sweden
↑ A. Elanga for A. Bernhardsson
56'Sweden
↑ Lucas Bergvall for Benjamin Nygren
56'Sweden
↑ Besfort Zeneli for Jesper Karlström
59'Netherlands
↑ T. Koopmeiners for F. de Jong
59'Netherlands
↑ G. Til for T. Reijnders
72'Netherlands
↑ Memphis Depay for Brian Brobbey
79'Sweden
↑ Taha Abdi Ali for Yasin Ayari
90'Netherlands
↑ Noa Lang for Cody Gakpo
93'Sweden
↑ E. Stroud for G. Gudmundsson
Match stats
51%Possession49%
10Shots16
7Shots on target8
2.47Expected goals0.98
2Corners5
9Fouls12
3Offsides3
7Saves2
88%Pass accuracy85%
Top performer
CGCody Gakpo
Netherlands · 2 goals
Lineups
Netherlands4-3-3
What's at stake
Matchday 2, Group F. The losing side here typically needs a Matchday 3 win plus favourable other-game results to advance.
Season form comparison
sample home 4 · away 4
2.75
Goals / match
1.75
1.25
Conceded / match
2.50
100%
BTTS rate
75%
0%
Clean sheet rate
0%
2.08
xG / match (club)
1.02
7.4
Corners / match
6.0
1.3
Yellows / match
1.7
65%
Possession
55%
Netherlands · last 4
Head to head · 2 meetings
1
Netherlands wins
1
Draws
0
Sweden wins
Last: Netherlands 2-0 Sweden (2017-10-10)avg 2.0 goals
Absences
model swing: 0 / 0 pp
Netherlands
No known absences.
Sweden
No known absences.
Win probability
Pre-match
The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.
Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.
The model's read
High confidenceResult: Netherlands are strong favourites at 71%.
Goals: Goals expected. Over 2.5 lands 64% of the time.
Most likely score 2-0 (11%)
Why the model leans this way
Factor contributions
home←·→away
Club xG form
+3.3%/-5.0%
Travel
0.0%/-3.0%
Head-to-head
+1.3%/-1.3%
Set pieces
+1.3%/+0.0%
Two-model view
Second model api-football
Two models divergeNetherlands
10%
Draw
45%
Sweden
45%
Their internal ratings (0-100)
25·
Form
·75
29·
Attack
·71
33·
Defence
·67
Their advice: Combo Winner : Sweden and +2.5 goals
Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.
Match analysis
Score-line probability
brighter = more likely
Netherlands goals
5
8
9
11
9
9
8
6
5
0123456
Sweden goals
Most likely: 2-0 11%, 2-1 9%, 3-0 9%. Outlined cells are draws.
Total goals
over 2.5 = 63%
50
101
212
223
184
125
106+
Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.
Team comparison
NetherlandsSweden
Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.
Fair odds for every market
How to use this
Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.
Match result
Home win71%1.41
Draw18%5.48
Away win11%9.21
Double chance
Home or draw89%1.12
Home or away82%1.22
Draw or away29%3.44
Draw no bet
Home (DNB)87%1.15
Away (DNB)13%7.53
Total goals
Over 0.595%1.05
Under 0.55%21.53
Over 1.585%1.17
Under 1.515%6.77
Over 2.564%1.56
Under 2.536%2.80
Over 3.542%2.37
Under 3.558%1.73
Over 4.524%4.18
Under 4.576%1.31
Odd / even goals
Odd48%2.09
Even52%1.92
Exact total goals
0 goals5%21.53
1 goals10%9.88
2 goals21%4.76
3 goals22%4.53
4 goals18%5.48
5 goals12%8.27
6+ goals12%8.46
Both teams to score
Yes53%1.88
No47%2.13
Team totals
Home over 0.592%1.09
Home over 1.571%1.42
Home over 2.545%2.24
Away over 0.557%1.75
Away over 1.521%4.83
Away over 2.55%18.53
Clean sheet
Home clean sheet43%2.33
Away clean sheet9%11.76
Win to nil
Home win to nil38%2.61
Away win to nil4%25.93
Asian handicap (home)
Home -2.530%3.39
Home -1.551%1.97
Home -0.572%1.39
Home +0.590%1.11
Home +1.597%1.03
Home +2.599%1.01
Correct score (top 8)
2-011%9.00
2-19%10.67
3-09%10.96
1-19%11.64
1-08%12.47
3-18%12.98
4-06%17.78
4-15%21.07
Half-time result
Home54%1.84
Draw33%3.02
Away13%7.92
Half-time goals
Over 0.577%1.29
Under 0.523%4.43
Over 1.544%2.28
Under 1.556%1.78
Half-time / full-time
Home/Home50%2.00
Home/Draw3%28.79
Home/Away1%121.27
Draw/Home20%5.10
Draw/Draw9%10.74
Draw/Away4%23.88
Away/Home3%30.06
Away/Draw3%28.79
Away/Away6%17.17
Corners (match total)
IndicativeOver 8.581%1.24
Under 8.519%5.23
Over 9.571%1.41
Under 9.529%3.45
Over 10.560%1.67
Under 10.540%2.48
Over 11.548%2.09
Under 11.552%1.92
Over 12.537%2.73
Under 12.563%1.58
Expected total: 11.5
NL corners
IndicativeOver 3.583%1.21
Under 3.517%5.83
Over 4.568%1.46
Under 4.532%3.17
Over 5.552%1.93
Under 5.548%2.08
Over 6.536%2.79
Under 6.564%1.56
Expected total: 5.8
SE corners
IndicativeOver 3.582%1.22
Under 3.518%5.58
Over 4.567%1.48
Under 4.533%3.07
Over 5.551%1.98
Under 5.549%2.02
Over 6.535%2.88
Under 6.565%1.53
Expected total: 5.7
Yellow cards (match total)
IndicativeOver 2.562%1.60
Under 2.538%2.66
Over 3.540%2.49
Under 3.560%1.67
Over 4.522%4.49
Under 4.578%1.29
Over 5.511%9.31
Under 5.589%1.12
Expected total: 3.2
NL anytime goalscorer
Indicativevery low sample (n=0)
J. Cillessen (?)22%4.58
L. Geertruida (Defender)7%14.03
Expected total: 0.3
SE anytime goalscorer
Indicativevery low sample (n=0)
I. Kiese Thelin (?)8%12.36
M. Lustig (?)8%12.36
P. Bengtsson (?)8%12.36
O. Lewicki (?)8%12.36
K. Olsson (?)8%12.36
J. Johansson (?)8%12.36
L. Augustinsson (?)8%12.36
A. Tinnerholm (?)8%12.36
Expected total: 0.7
Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 2.46, away 0.84). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.