Japan vs Sweden
Group F · Matchday 3
· AT&T Stadium, Dallas
Goals (2)
Cards (3)
Isak Hien
Shogo Taniguchi
Viktor Gyökeres
Substitutions (10)
↑ Lucas Bergvall for Isak Hien
↑ Shogo Taniguchi for Ko Itakura
↑ Koki Ogawa for Ayase Ueda
↑ Junya Ito for Ritsu Doan
↑ Yuto Nagatomo for Keito Nakamura
↑ Tsuyoshi Watanabe for Ayumu Seko
↑ K. Sema for E. Stroud
↑ D. Svensson for A. Bernhardsson
↑ Carl Starfelt for Victor Lindelöf
↑ Benjamin Nygren for Gabriel Gudmundsson
Match stats
Top performer
DMDaizen Maeda
Japan · 1 goal
Lineups
Japan3-4-2-1
What's at stake
Matchday 3, final group game. Both sides know the exact result they need.
Season form comparison
sample home 4 · away 4
Head to head · 1 meetings
0
Japan wins
1
Draws
0
Sweden wins
Absences
model swing: 0 / 0 pp
Japan
No known absences.
Sweden
No known absences.
Win probability
Pre-match
The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.
Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.
The model's read
Medium confidenceResult: Japan are slight favourites at 51%, but it is far from settled.
Goals: Goals are a coin-flip around the 2.5 line (over 53%).
Why the model leans this way
Factor contributions
home←·→away
Two-model view
Second model api-football
Two models moderately agreeJapan
45%
Draw
45%
Sweden
10%
Their internal ratings (0-100)
Their advice: Combo Double chance : Japan or draw and +2.5 goals
Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.
Key players to watch
Sweden
No per-90 data for this squad yet.
Per-90 stats: Rising Transfers (risingtransfers.com), CC BY 4.0
Match analysis
Score-line probability
brighter = more likely
Sweden goals
Most likely: 1-1 13%, 2-1 10%, 2-0 9%. Outlined cells are draws.
Total goals
over 2.5 = 53%
Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.
Team comparison
Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.
Fair odds for every market
How to use this
Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.
Match result
Double chance
Draw no bet
Total goals
Odd / even goals
Exact total goals
Both teams to score
Team totals
Clean sheet
Win to nil
Asian handicap (home)
Correct score (top 8)
Half-time result
Half-time goals
Half-time / full-time
Corners (match total)
IndicativeExpected total: 10.7
JP corners
IndicativeExpected total: 5.0
SE corners
IndicativeExpected total: 5.7
Yellow cards (match total)
IndicativeExpected total: 2.9
JP anytime goalscorer
Indicativelow sample (n=1)
Expected total: 1.4
SE anytime goalscorer
Indicativevery low sample (n=0)
Expected total: 0.8
Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 1.75, away 1.06). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.