Senegal vs Iraq

Group I · Matchday 3

· BMO Field, Toronto

Group I standings →Bracket →SN 100% · IQ 0% to advance

Senegal

78%

5–0

Iraq

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Goals (5)

H. Diarra

assist: A. Seck

Senegal

56'

I. Sarr

assist: L. Camara

Senegal

59'

P. Gueye

assist: I. Sarr

Senegal

71'

P. Gueye

assist: I. Ndiaye

Senegal

82'

I. Ndiaye

assist: P. Gueye

Senegal

Cards (5)

13'

R. Sulaka

Iraq

18'

A. Seck

Senegal

75'

Amir Al-Ammari

Iraq

81'

Pape Gueye

Senegal

90'

Merchas Doski

Iraq

Substitutions (10)

16'

↑ M. Younis for A. Qasem

Iraq

46'

↑ J. Hassan for A. Basil

Iraq

57'

↑ N. Jackson for L. Camara

Senegal

57'

↑ P. Gueye for H. Diarra

Senegal

57'

↑ I. Ndiaye for I. Mbaye

Senegal

58'

↑ P. Ciss for A. Seck

Senegal

58'

↑ A. Yousif for A. Al Hamadi

Iraq

58'

↑ A. Maknzi for A. Jasim

Iraq

67'

↑ K. Yakob for Z. Iqbal

Iraq

81'

↑ A. Diao for I. Sarr

Senegal

Match stats

56%Possession44%

9Shots4

2Shots on target0

1.07Expected goals0.12

5Corners3

5Fouls4

1Offsides0

0Saves1

81%Pass accuracy76%

Top performer

P. Gueye

Senegal · 2 goals

Lineups

Senegal4-2-3-1

Iraq4-1-4-1

What's at stake

Matchday 3, final group game. Both sides know the exact result they need.

Season form comparison

sample home 4 · away 3

2.50

Goals / match

0.33

2.25

Conceded / match

4.00

75%

BTTS rate

33%

25%

Clean sheet rate

0.00

xG / match (club)

0.00

5.7

Corners / match

3.9

1.8

Yellows / match

1.7

52%

Possession

43%

Senegal · last 4

Iraq · last 3

Head to head · 1 meetings

Senegal wins

Draws

Iraq wins

Last: Senegal 1-0 Iraq (2026-06-26)avg 1.0 goals

Absences

model swing: 0 / 0 pp

Senegal

No known absences.

Iraq

No known absences.

Win probability

Pre-match

The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.

Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.

The model's read

High confidence

Result: Senegal are strong favourites at 78%.
Goals: Goals are a coin-flip around the 2.5 line (over 55%).
Both score: Expect at least one clean sheet. Both-teams-score is just 37%.

Most likely score 2-0 (16%)

Why the model leans this way

Factor contributions

home←·→away

Rest days

-6.0%/+6.0%

Travel

-3.0%/0.0%

Set pieces

+1.4%/-1.2%

Club xG form

-0.9%/-3.3%

Two-model view

Second model api-football

Two models diverge

Senegal

45%

Draw

45%

Iraq

10%

Their internal ratings (0-100)

0·

Form

·0

75·

Attack

·25

54·

Defence

·46

Their advice: Combo Double chance : Senegal or draw and +1.5 goals

Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.

Key players to watch

Senegal

No per-90 data for this squad yet.

Iraq

Per-90 stats: Rising Transfers (risingtransfers.com), CC BY 4.0

Match analysis

Score-line probability

brighter = more likely

Senegal goals

0123456

Iraq goals

Most likely: 2-0 16%, 3-0 13%, 1-0 12%. Outlined cells are draws.

Total goals

over 2.5 = 54%

Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.

Team comparison

SenegalIraq

Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.

Fair odds for every market

How to use this

Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.

Match result

Home win78%1.29

Draw16%6.11

Away win6%16.42

Double chance

Home or draw94%1.06

Home or away84%1.20

Draw or away22%4.45

Draw no bet

Home (DNB)93%1.08

Away (DNB)7%13.73

Total goals

Over 0.594%1.07

Under 0.56%15.53

Over 1.579%1.26

Under 1.521%4.82

Over 2.555%1.81

Under 2.545%2.23

Over 3.533%3.05

Under 3.567%1.49

Over 4.517%6.01

Under 4.583%1.20

Odd / even goals

Odd48%2.08

Even52%1.93

Exact total goals

0 goals6%15.53

1 goals14%6.98

2 goals24%4.15

3 goals22%4.47

4 goals16%6.19

5 goals9%10.72

6+ goals7%13.68

Both teams to score

Yes37%2.70

No63%1.59

Team totals

Home over 0.591%1.10

Home over 1.569%1.45

Home over 2.543%2.35

Away over 0.540%2.51

Away over 1.59%10.79

Away over 2.52%66.66

Clean sheet

Home clean sheet60%1.66

Away clean sheet9%10.82

Win to nil

Home win to nil54%1.86

Away win to nil3%35.61

Asian handicap (home)

Home -2.533%3.03

Home -1.556%1.78

Home -0.578%1.28

Home +0.595%1.06

Home +1.599%1.01

Home +2.599%+1.00

Correct score (top 8)

2-016%6.34

3-013%7.99

1-012%8.08

2-18%12.48

1-18%13.15

4-07%13.42

0-06%15.53

3-16%15.73

Half-time result

Home58%1.73

Draw34%2.91

Away8%12.73

Half-time goals

Over 0.573%1.37

Under 0.527%3.67

Over 1.537%2.68

Under 1.563%1.60

Half-time / full-time

Home/Home55%1.82

Home/Draw2%41.66

Home/Away<1%294.41

Draw/Home22%4.58

Draw/Draw10%10.18

Draw/Away3%37.33

Away/Home2%43.12

Away/Draw2%41.66

Away/Away3%31.87

Corners (match total)

Indicative

Over 8.563%1.60

Under 8.537%2.68

Over 9.550%2.01

Under 9.550%1.99

Over 10.537%2.68

Under 10.563%1.60

Over 11.526%3.78

Under 11.574%1.36

Over 12.518%5.67

Under 12.582%1.21

Expected total: 9.7

SN corners

Indicative

Over 3.580%1.25

Under 3.520%5.01

Over 4.565%1.55

Under 4.535%2.82

Over 5.547%2.11

Under 5.553%1.90

Over 6.532%3.15

Under 6.568%1.46

Expected total: 5.5

IQ corners

Indicative

Over 3.559%1.69

Under 3.541%2.45

Over 4.540%2.52

Under 4.560%1.66

Over 5.524%4.24

Under 5.576%1.31

Over 6.512%8.02

Under 6.588%1.14

Expected total: 4.1

Yellow cards (match total)

Indicative

Over 2.567%1.49

Under 2.533%3.05

Over 3.546%2.20

Under 3.554%1.84

Over 4.527%3.74

Under 4.573%1.36

Over 5.514%7.28

Under 5.586%1.16

Expected total: 3.5

SN anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

N. Fadiga (?)21%4.72

K. Baldé (?)21%4.72

M. Loum (?)21%4.72

Salif Sané (?)21%4.72

B. Ndiaye (?)21%4.72

M. Diagne (?)21%4.72

Pape Cheikh (?)21%4.72

Y. Sabaly (?)21%4.72

Expected total: 1.9

IQ anytime goalscorer

Indicative

low sample (n=1)

Aymen Hussein (Attacker)16%6.22

Mohanad Ali (Attacker)14%7.07

Ali Yousif Hashim (Attacker)14%7.07

A. Jasim (Attacker)14%7.07

Bashar Rasan (?)5%20.20

Humam Tariq (?)5%20.20

Masies Artien (?)5%20.20

Ahmad Ibrahim Khalaf (?)5%20.20

Expected total: 0.8

Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 2.38, away 0.51). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.