Croatia vs Ghana

Group L · Matchday 3

· Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia

Group L standings →Bracket →HR 100% · GH 100% to advance

Croatia

65%

2–1

Ghana

10%

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Goals (3)

31'

P. Sucic

assist: M. Kovacic

Croatia

73'

D. Luckassen

assist: E. Nuamah

Ghana

83'

N. Vlasic

assist: L. Modric

Croatia

Cards (2)

68'

I. Perisic

Croatia

94'

Kojo Peprah Oppong

Ghana

Substitutions (9)

46'

↑ K. Peprah for J. Adjetey

Ghana

46'

↑ I. Fatawu for E. Owusu

Ghana

66'

↑ I. Matanovic for A. Budimir

Croatia

71'

↑ B. Thomas-Asante for J. Ayew

Ghana

71'

↑ E. Nuamah for K. Sulemana

Ghana

78'

↑ M. Pasalic for M. Kovacic

Croatia

85'

↑ C. Yirenkyi for K. Sibo

Ghana

88'

↑ J. Gvardiol for N. Vlasic

Croatia

88'

↑ M. Pasalic for M. Baturina

Croatia

Match stats

53%Possession47%

8Shots4

4Shots on target1

0.46Expected goals0.67

2Corners2

9Fouls12

1Offsides2

0Saves2

92%Pass accuracy89%

Top performer

P. Sucic

Croatia · 1 goal

Lineups

Croatia4-2-3-1

Ghana4-3-3

What's at stake

Matchday 3, final group game. Both sides know the exact result they need.

Season form comparison

sample home 4 · away 4

1.50

Goals / match

0.50

1.75

Conceded / match

0.75

75%

BTTS rate

25%

Clean sheet rate

50%

2.42

xG / match (club)

0.00

6.0

Corners / match

4.1

1.6

Yellows / match

2.2

60%

Possession

46%

Croatia · last 4

Ghana · last 4

Head to head · 1 meetings

Croatia wins

Draws

Ghana wins

Last: Croatia 0-0 Ghana (2026-06-27)avg 0.0 goals

Absences

model swing: 0 / 0 pp

Croatia

No known absences.

Ghana

No known absences.

Win probability

Pre-match

The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.

Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.

The model's read

High confidence

Result: Croatia are strong favourites at 65%.
Goals: A low-scoring game looks likely. Under 2.5 is favoured (61%).
Both score: Expect at least one clean sheet. Both-teams-score is just 34%.

Most likely score 1-0 (17%)

Why the model leans this way

Factor contributions

home←·→away

Club xG form

+2.7%/-6.1%

Rest days

+4.0%/-4.0%

Set pieces

+1.5%/-0.5%

Travel

0.0%/-1.0%

Two-model view

Second model api-football

Two models diverge

Croatia

35%

Draw

35%

Ghana

30%

Their internal ratings (0-100)

43·

Form

·57

75·

Attack

·25

0·

Defence

·100

Their advice: Combo Double chance : Croatia or draw and -3.5 goals

Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.

Match analysis

Score-line probability

brighter = more likely

Croatia goals

0123456

Ghana goals

Most likely: 1-0 17%, 2-0 16%, 0-0 12%. Outlined cells are draws.

Total goals

over 2.5 = 39%

Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.

Team comparison

CroatiaGhana

Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.

Fair odds for every market

How to use this

Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.

Match result

Home win65%1.53

Draw25%4.07

Away win10%9.99

Double chance

Home or draw90%1.11

Home or away75%1.33

Draw or away35%2.89

Draw no bet

Home (DNB)87%1.15

Away (DNB)13%7.54

Total goals

Over 0.588%1.13

Under 0.512%8.55

Over 1.567%1.49

Under 1.533%3.04

Over 2.539%2.55

Under 2.561%1.64

Over 3.519%5.22

Under 3.581%1.24

Over 4.58%12.73

Under 4.592%1.09

Odd / even goals

Odd47%2.13

Even53%1.89

Exact total goals

0 goals12%8.55

1 goals21%4.71

2 goals28%3.59

3 goals20%4.99

4 goals11%8.85

5 goals5%19.62

6+ goals3%36.21

Both teams to score

Yes34%2.92

No66%1.52

Team totals

Home over 0.583%1.21

Home over 1.552%1.92

Home over 2.525%3.93

Away over 0.540%2.50

Away over 1.59%10.69

Away over 2.52%65.64

Clean sheet

Home clean sheet60%1.67

Away clean sheet17%5.72

Win to nil

Home win to nil48%2.07

Away win to nil6%17.30

Asian handicap (home)

Home -2.519%5.38

Home -1.540%2.51

Home -0.566%1.51

Home +0.591%1.10

Home +1.598%1.02

Home +2.599%+1.00

Correct score (top 8)

1-017%5.86

2-016%6.27

0-012%8.55

1-111%9.47

3-09%10.79

2-18%12.27

3-15%21.11

0-14%24.13

Half-time result

Home47%2.14

Draw43%2.32

Away10%9.79

Half-time goals

Over 0.564%1.57

Under 0.536%2.76

Over 1.527%3.71

Under 1.573%1.37

Half-time / full-time

Home/Home43%2.31

Home/Draw3%32.94

Home/Away<1%226.59

Draw/Home22%4.46

Draw/Draw16%6.23

Draw/Away5%21.79

Away/Home2%52.06

Away/Draw3%32.94

Away/Away5%19.04

Corners (match total)

Indicative

Over 8.564%1.55

Under 8.536%2.81

Over 9.552%1.93

Under 9.548%2.07

Over 10.539%2.55

Under 10.561%1.65

Over 11.528%3.56

Under 11.572%1.39

Over 12.519%5.26

Under 12.581%1.23

Expected total: 9.8

HR corners

Indicative

Over 3.580%1.25

Under 3.520%5.04

Over 4.565%1.55

Under 4.535%2.83

Over 5.548%2.10

Under 5.552%1.91

Over 6.532%3.14

Under 6.568%1.47

Expected total: 5.5

GH corners

Indicative

Over 3.562%1.62

Under 3.538%2.62

Over 4.542%2.36

Under 4.558%1.74

Over 5.526%3.86

Under 5.574%1.35

Over 6.514%7.09

Under 6.586%1.16

Expected total: 4.3

Yellow cards (match total)

Indicative

Over 2.574%1.35

Under 2.526%3.85

Over 3.554%1.86

Under 3.546%2.17

Over 4.534%2.91

Under 4.566%1.52

Over 5.519%5.18

Under 5.581%1.24

Expected total: 3.9

HR anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

M. Mitrović (?)16%6.25

I. Rakitić (?)16%6.25

Šime Vrsaljko (?)16%6.25

M. Brozović (?)16%6.25

D. Lovren (?)16%6.25

M. Livaja (?)16%6.25

L. Modrić (Midfielder)16%6.25

F. Benković (?)16%6.25

Expected total: 1.4

GH anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

C. Bonsu Baah (Attacker)14%7.04

J. Aidoo (?)5%20.08

F. Annan (?)5%20.08

R. Ofori (?)5%20.08

H. Afful (?)5%20.08

J. Mensah (?)5%20.08

D. Amartey (?)5%20.08

M. Wakaso (?)5%20.08

Expected total: 0.5

Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 1.74, away 0.51). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.