Netherlands vs Morocco

Group null · Matchday 4

· Estadio BBVA, Monterrey

Group standings →Bracket →NL 100% · MA 100% to advance

Netherlands

55%

After Pens

1–1

Pens 2–3

Morocco

19%

Share card

Decided on penalties

1-1 after ET · 2-3 pens

Netherlands

×××

Morocco

××

›Per-kick log

1Netherlands✓T. Koopmeiners
2Morocco✗N. El Aynaoui
3Netherlands✗J. Kluivert
4Morocco✓S. Rahimi
5Netherlands✓W. Weghorst
6Morocco✓C. Talbi
7Netherlands✗Q. Timber
8Morocco✗A. Hakimi
9Netherlands✗C. Summerville
10Morocco✓I. Saibari

Goals (2)

72'

C. Gakpo

Netherlands

90'

I. Diop

assist: C. Talbi

Morocco

Cards (1)

47'

I. Diop

Morocco

Substitutions (11)

71'

↑ W. Weghorst for B. Brobbey

Netherlands

71'

↑ T. Koopmeiners for N. Ake

Netherlands

75'

↑ A. Salah-Eddine for C. Riad

Morocco

79'

↑ S. El Mourabet for A. Bouaddi

Morocco

79'

↑ G. Yassine for B. Diaz

Morocco

86'

↑ Soufiane Rahimi for Azzedine Ounahi

Morocco

86'

↑ Q. Timber for R. Gravenberch

Netherlands

86'

↑ J. Hato for M. van de Ven

Netherlands

87'

↑ C. Talbi for B. El Khannouss

Morocco

110'

↑ M. De Roon for F. de Jong

Netherlands

113'

↑ J. Kluivert for C. Gakpo

Netherlands

Match stats

30%Possession70%

6Shots11

2Shots on target5

0.23Expected goals1.40

5Corners8

18Fouls15

3Offsides0

5Saves1

79%Pass accuracy91%

Top performer

C. Talbi

Morocco · 1 goal

Lineups

Netherlands3-4-2-1

Morocco4-2-3-1

What's at stake

Knockout fixture, single elimination.

Season form comparison

sample home 4 · away 6

2.75

Goals / match

1.67

1.25

Conceded / match

1.00

100%

BTTS rate

50%

Clean sheet rate

33%

2.08

xG / match (club)

0.95

7.4

Corners / match

4.6

1.3

Yellows / match

1.4

65%

Possession

54%

Netherlands · last 4

Morocco · last 5

Scotland0-119 June WH

Haiti4-224 June DA

Netherlands1-130 June WA

Canada0-34 July LA

France2-09 July

Head to head · 1 meetings

Netherlands wins

Draws

Morocco wins

Last: Morocco 1-2 Netherlands (2017-05-31)avg 3.0 goals

Absences

model swing: 0 / 0 pp

Netherlands

No known absences.

Morocco

No known absences.

Win probability

Pre-match

The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.

Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.

The model's read

Medium confidence

Result: Netherlands are slight favourites at 55%, but it is far from settled.
Goals: Goals are a coin-flip around the 2.5 line (over 51%).

Most likely score 1-1 (12%)

Why the model leans this way

Factor contributions

home←·→away

Rest days

+6.0%/-6.0%

Club xG form

+1.0%/-4.8%

Set pieces

+0.5%/-0.8%

Two-model view

Second model api-football

Two models moderately agree

Netherlands

45%

Draw

45%

Morocco

10%

Their internal ratings (0-100)

50·

Form

·50

63·

Attack

·38

43·

Defence

·57

Their advice: Double chance : Netherlands or draw

Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.

Match analysis

Score-line probability

brighter = more likely

Netherlands goals

0123456

Morocco goals

Most likely: 1-1 12%, 2-0 11%, 1-0 10%. Outlined cells are draws.

Total goals

over 2.5 = 51%

Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.

Team comparison

NetherlandsMorocco

Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.

Fair odds for every market

How to use this

Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.

Match result

Home win55%1.81

Draw26%3.84

Away win19%5.37

Double chance

Home or draw81%1.23

Home or away74%1.35

Draw or away45%2.24

Draw no bet

Home (DNB)75%1.34

Away (DNB)25%3.97

Total goals

Over 0.592%1.09

Under 0.58%12.42

Over 1.577%1.30

Under 1.523%4.31

Over 2.551%1.96

Under 2.549%2.04

Over 3.529%3.46

Under 3.571%1.41

Over 4.514%7.18

Under 4.586%1.16

Odd / even goals

Odd47%2.13

Even53%1.88

Exact total goals

0 goals8%12.42

1 goals15%6.61

2 goals26%3.87

3 goals22%4.53

4 goals15%6.67

5 goals8%12.30

6+ goals6%17.28

Both teams to score

Yes52%1.94

No48%2.07

Team totals

Home over 0.583%1.20

Home over 1.553%1.87

Home over 2.527%3.75

Away over 0.560%1.66

Away over 1.524%4.23

Away over 2.57%14.96

Clean sheet

Home clean sheet40%2.52

Away clean sheet17%5.99

Win to nil

Home win to nil32%3.16

Away win to nil9%11.57

Asian handicap (home)

Home -2.515%6.59

Home -1.533%3.03

Home -0.556%1.77

Home +0.582%1.22

Home +1.594%1.07

Home +2.598%1.02

Correct score (top 8)

1-112%8.07

2-011%9.42

1-010%9.58

2-110%10.19

0-08%12.42

3-06%15.79

3-16%17.08

1-25%19.75

Half-time result

Home42%2.38

Draw40%2.49

Away18%5.65

Half-time goals

Over 0.571%1.42

Under 0.529%3.39

Over 1.535%2.90

Under 1.565%1.53

Half-time / full-time

Home/Home36%2.74

Home/Draw4%22.51

Home/Away1%83.18

Draw/Home19%5.38

Draw/Draw14%7.06

Draw/Away7%13.38

Away/Home3%36.22

Away/Draw4%22.51

Away/Away11%9.52

Corners (match total)

Indicative

Over 8.572%1.39

Under 8.528%3.54

Over 9.560%1.67

Under 9.540%2.49

Over 10.548%2.10

Under 10.552%1.91

Over 11.536%2.80

Under 11.564%1.56

Over 12.525%3.92

Under 12.575%1.34

Expected total: 10.5

NL corners

Indicative

Over 3.583%1.21

Under 3.517%5.83

Over 4.568%1.46

Under 4.532%3.17

Over 5.552%1.93

Under 5.548%2.08

Over 6.536%2.79

Under 6.564%1.56

Expected total: 5.8

MA corners

Indicative

Over 3.569%1.45

Under 3.531%3.21

Over 4.550%1.99

Under 4.550%2.01

Over 5.533%3.04

Under 5.567%1.49

Over 6.519%5.17

Under 6.581%1.24

Expected total: 4.7

Yellow cards (match total)

Indicative

Over 2.555%1.83

Under 2.545%2.21

Over 3.532%3.08

Under 3.568%1.48

Over 4.516%6.10

Under 4.584%1.20

Over 5.57%13.94

Under 5.593%1.08

Expected total: 2.9

NL anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

J. Cillessen (?)16%6.10

L. Geertruida (Defender)5%19.12

Expected total: 0.2

MA anytime goalscorer

Indicative

low sample (n=1)

S. Rahimi (Attacker)33%3.02

S. Amrabat (Midfielder)9%11.33

H. Mendyl (?)9%11.33

N. Boujellab (?)9%11.33

Y. Belhanda (?)9%11.33

A. Taarabt (?)9%11.33

M. El Haddadi (?)9%11.33

O. El Kaddouri (?)9%11.33

Expected total: 1.1

Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 1.79, away 0.92). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.