France vs Morocco

Group null · Matchday 6

· Gillette Stadium, Foxborough

Group standings →Bracket →FR 100% · MA 100% to advance

France

59%

2–0

Morocco

16%

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Goals (2)

60'

K. Mbappe

assist: D. Doue

France

66'

O. Dembele

France

Missed penalties (1)

28'

K. Mbappemiss

France

Cards (1)

63'

I. Diop

Morocco

Substitutions (9)

62'

↑ S. Amrabat for A. Bouaddi

Morocco

62'

↑ S. Rahimi for B. El Khannouss

Morocco

71'

↑ W. Zaire-Emery for M. Kone

France

74'

↑ G. Yassine for B. Diaz

Morocco

74'

↑ Z. El Ouahdi for A. Salah-Eddine

Morocco

77'

↑ J. Mateta for K. Mbappe

France

77'

↑ B. Barcola for D. Doue

France

85'

↑ A. Sbai for C. Talbi

Morocco

87'

↑ Malo Gusto for Jules Koundé

France

Match stats

48%Possession52%

21Shots5

8Shots on target1

3.10Expected goals0.13

5Corners5

10Fouls12

1Saves6

89%Pass accuracy86%

Top performer

K. Mbappe

France · 1 goal

Lineups

France4-2-3-1

Morocco4-2-3-1

What's at stake

Knockout fixture, single elimination.

Season form comparison

sample home 8 · away 6

2.50

Goals / match

1.67

1.25

Conceded / match

1.00

38%

BTTS rate

50%

Clean sheet rate

33%

2.23

xG / match (club)

0.95

6.0

Corners / match

4.6

1.4

Yellows / match

1.4

58%

Possession

54%

France · last 5

Morocco · last 5

Scotland0-119 June WH

Haiti4-224 June DA

Netherlands1-130 June WA

Canada0-34 July LA

France2-09 July

Head to head · 1 meetings

France wins

Draws

Morocco wins

Last: France 2-0 Morocco (2022-12-14)avg 2.0 goals

Absences

model swing: 0 / 0 pp

France

No known absences.

Morocco

No known absences.

Win probability

Pre-match

The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.

Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.

The model's read

Medium confidence

Result: France are slight favourites at 59%, but it is far from settled.
Goals: Goals are a coin-flip around the 2.5 line (over 48%).

Most likely score 1-1 (12%)

Why the model leans this way

Factor contributions

home←·→away

Rest days

-6.0%/+6.0%

Head-to-head

+3.2%/-3.2%

Club xG form

+0.3%/-4.5%

Two-model view

Second model api-football

Two models moderately agree

France

45%

Draw

45%

Morocco

10%

Their internal ratings (0-100)

54·

Form

·46

56·

Attack

·44

67·

Defence

·33

Their advice: Double chance : France or draw

Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.

Match analysis

Score-line probability

brighter = more likely

France goals

0123456

Morocco goals

Most likely: 1-1 12%, 2-0 12%, 1-0 12%. Outlined cells are draws.

Total goals

over 2.5 = 48%

Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.

Team comparison

FranceMorocco

Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.

Fair odds for every market

How to use this

Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.

Match result

Home win59%1.70

Draw25%3.92

Away win16%6.37

Double chance

Home or draw84%1.19

Home or away75%1.34

Draw or away41%2.43

Draw no bet

Home (DNB)79%1.27

Away (DNB)21%4.75

Total goals

Over 0.591%1.10

Under 0.59%11.43

Over 1.575%1.34

Under 1.525%3.97

Over 2.548%2.07

Under 2.552%1.94

Over 3.527%3.76

Under 3.573%1.36

Over 4.512%8.07

Under 4.588%1.14

Odd / even goals

Odd47%2.13

Even53%1.89

Exact total goals

0 goals9%11.43

1 goals16%6.09

2 goals26%3.78

3 goals22%4.59

4 goals14%7.04

5 goals7%13.49

6+ goals5%20.12

Both teams to score

Yes47%2.11

No53%1.90

Team totals

Home over 0.584%1.20

Home over 1.554%1.85

Home over 2.527%3.68

Away over 0.555%1.81

Away over 1.519%5.22

Away over 2.55%21.02

Clean sheet

Home clean sheet45%2.23

Away clean sheet16%6.10

Win to nil

Home win to nil36%2.77

Away win to nil8%13.07

Asian handicap (home)

Home -2.517%5.98

Home -1.536%2.80

Home -0.560%1.67

Home +0.585%1.17

Home +1.595%1.05

Home +2.599%1.01

Correct score (top 8)

1-112%8.30

2-012%8.31

1-012%8.39

2-110%10.38

0-09%11.43

3-07%13.79

3-16%17.22

0-15%22.17

Half-time result

Home44%2.27

Draw41%2.46

Away15%6.51

Half-time goals

Over 0.569%1.45

Under 0.531%3.24

Over 1.533%3.05

Under 1.567%1.49

Half-time / full-time

Home/Home39%2.57

Home/Draw4%24.55

Home/Away1%105.73

Draw/Home20%5.07

Draw/Draw14%6.94

Draw/Away7%15.32

Away/Home3%38.42

Away/Draw4%24.55

Away/Away9%11.53

Corners (match total)

Indicative

Over 8.573%1.37

Under 8.527%3.67

Over 9.561%1.64

Under 9.539%2.57

Over 10.549%2.05

Under 10.551%1.95

Over 11.537%2.71

Under 11.563%1.59

Over 12.527%3.77

Under 12.573%1.36

Expected total: 10.6

FR corners

Indicative

Over 3.584%1.19

Under 3.516%6.18

Over 4.570%1.43

Under 4.530%3.33

Over 5.554%1.87

Under 5.546%2.15

Over 6.538%2.66

Under 6.562%1.60

Expected total: 5.9

MA corners

Indicative

Over 3.569%1.45

Under 3.531%3.21

Over 4.550%1.99

Under 4.550%2.01

Over 5.533%3.04

Under 5.567%1.49

Over 6.519%5.17

Under 6.581%1.24

Expected total: 4.7

Yellow cards (match total)

Indicative

Over 2.554%1.87

Under 2.546%2.16

Over 3.531%3.19

Under 3.569%1.46

Over 4.516%6.41

Under 4.584%1.18

Over 5.57%14.88

Under 5.593%1.07

Expected total: 2.8

FR anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

T. Lemar (?)17%6.05

M. Diaby (?)17%6.05

K. Coman (?)17%6.05

L. Dubois (?)17%6.05

H. Aouar (Midfielder)17%6.05

N. Fekir (?)17%6.05

K. Benzema (?)17%6.05

B. Matuidi (?)17%6.05

Expected total: 1.4

MA anytime goalscorer

Indicative

low sample (n=1)

S. Rahimi (Attacker)29%3.40

S. Amrabat (Midfielder)8%12.99

H. Mendyl (?)8%12.99

N. Boujellab (?)8%12.99

Y. Belhanda (?)8%12.99

A. Taarabt (?)8%12.99

M. El Haddadi (?)8%12.99

O. El Kaddouri (?)8%12.99

Expected total: 0.9

Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 1.81, away 0.80). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.