Brazil vs Morocco

Group C · Matchday 1

· MetLife Stadium, New York

Group C standings →Bracket →BR 100% · MA 100% to advance

Brazil

57%

FT

1–1

HT 1–1

Morocco

16%

Share card

Goals (2)

21'

I. Saibari

assist: B. Diaz

Morocco
32'

Vinicius Junior

assist: Bruno Guimaraes

Brazil

Cards (2)

37'

Casemiro

Brazil
43'

Roger Ibañez

Brazil

Substitutions (10)

46'

↑ Danilo for Ibanez

Brazil
46'

↑ Fabinho for Casemiro

Brazil
61'

↑ M. Cunha for Lucas Paqueta

Brazil
62'

↑ Luiz Henrique for I. Thiago

Brazil
65'

↑ C. Talbi for B. Diaz

Morocco
65'

↑ S. El Mourabet for A. Ounahi

Morocco
80'

↑ Danilo Santos for Bruno Guimaraes

Brazil
80'

↑ A. Salah-Eddine for N. Mazraoui

Morocco
80'

↑ A. Amaimouni for B. El Khannouss

Morocco
89'

↑ S. Rahimi for I. Saibari

Morocco

Match stats

51%Possession49%
12Shots14
5Shots on target3
1.26Expected goals1.37
6Corners2
16Fouls14
0Offsides1
2Saves4
87%Pass accuracy86%

Top performer

IS

I. Saibari

Morocco · 1 goal

Lineups

Brazil4-2-3-1

Morocco4-2-3-1

What's at stake

Matchday 1, Group C opener. A win swings ~30 percentage points of qualification odds.

Season form comparison

sample home 5 · away 6

2.00
Goals / match
1.67
0.80
Conceded / match
1.00
60%
BTTS rate
50%
40%
Clean sheet rate
33%
1.57
xG / match (club)
0.95
4.6
Corners / match
4.6
2.0
Yellows / match
1.4
58%
Possession
54%

Head to head · 2 meetings

0

Brazil wins

1

Draws

1

Morocco wins

Last: Brazil 1-1 Morocco (2026-06-13)avg 2.5 goals

Absences

model swing: 0 / 0 pp

Brazil

No known absences.

Morocco

No known absences.

Win probability

Pre-match

The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.

Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.

The model's read

Medium confidence

  • Result: Brazil are slight favourites at 57%, but it is far from settled.

  • Goals: Goals are a coin-flip around the 2.5 line (over 44%).

Most likely score 1-0 (13%)

Why the model leans this way

Factor contributions

home←·→away

Rest days
+6.0%/-6.0%
Set pieces
-2.1%/+0.2%
Club xG form
-3.5%/-3.1%

Two-model view

Second model api-football

Two models moderately agree

Brazil

0%

Draw

50%

Morocco

50%

Their internal ratings (0-100)

0·
Form
·0
0·
Attack
·0
0·
Defence
·0

Their advice: Double chance : draw or Morocco

Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.

Match analysis

Score-line probability

brighter = more likely

Brazil goals
10
5
13
13
4
12
9
7
5
0123456

Morocco goals

Most likely: 1-0 13%, 1-1 13%, 2-0 12%. Outlined cells are draws.

Total goals

over 2.5 = 44%

10
0
18
1
27
2
21
3
13
4
6
5
4
6+

Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.

Team comparison

AttackDefenceRatingSet-pieceattackSet-piecedefence
BrazilMorocco

Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.

Fair odds for every market

How to use this

Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.

Match result

Home win57%1.75
Draw27%3.72
Away win16%6.19

Double chance

Home or draw84%1.19
Home or away73%1.37
Draw or away43%2.32

Draw no bet

Home (DNB)78%1.28
Away (DNB)22%4.53

Total goals

Over 0.590%1.11
Under 0.510%9.84
Over 1.571%1.40
Under 1.529%3.50
Over 2.544%2.27
Under 2.556%1.79
Over 3.523%4.35
Under 3.577%1.30
Over 4.510%9.91
Under 4.590%1.11

Odd / even goals

Odd47%2.14
Even53%1.88

Exact total goals

0 goals10%9.84
1 goals18%5.44
2 goals27%3.65
3 goals21%4.74
4 goals13%7.77
5 goals6%15.92
6+ goals4%26.23

Both teams to score

Yes45%2.23
No55%1.81

Team totals

Home over 0.581%1.23
Home over 1.550%2.00
Home over 2.524%4.21
Away over 0.553%1.88
Away over 1.518%5.65
Away over 2.54%23.90

Clean sheet

Home clean sheet47%2.14
Away clean sheet19%5.37

Win to nil

Home win to nil37%2.73
Away win to nil8%11.80

Asian handicap (home)

Home -2.515%6.79
Home -1.533%3.01
Home -0.558%1.73
Home +0.585%1.18
Home +1.595%1.05
Home +2.599%1.01

Correct score (top 8)

1-013%7.58
1-113%7.95
2-012%8.13
0-010%9.84
2-19%10.70
3-07%14.52
3-15%19.10
0-15%19.31

Half-time result

Home42%2.37
Draw43%2.35
Away15%6.52

Half-time goals

Over 0.567%1.50
Under 0.533%3.00
Over 1.530%3.33
Under 1.570%1.43

Half-time / full-time

Home/Home37%2.69
Home/Draw4%24.70
Home/Away1%111.81
Draw/Home20%5.04
Draw/Draw16%6.31
Draw/Away7%14.55
Away/Home2%42.22
Away/Draw4%24.70
Away/Away9%11.22

Corners (match total)

Indicative
Over 8.560%1.68
Under 8.540%2.48
Over 9.547%2.15
Under 9.553%1.87
Over 10.534%2.92
Under 10.566%1.52
Over 11.524%4.21
Under 11.576%1.31
Over 12.516%6.43
Under 12.584%1.18

Expected total: 9.4

BR corners

Indicative
Over 3.569%1.44
Under 3.531%3.26
Over 4.551%1.97
Under 4.549%2.04
Over 5.533%2.99
Under 5.567%1.50
Over 6.520%5.06
Under 6.580%1.25

Expected total: 4.7

MA corners

Indicative
Over 3.569%1.45
Under 3.531%3.21
Over 4.550%1.99
Under 4.550%2.01
Over 5.533%3.04
Under 5.567%1.49
Over 6.519%5.17
Under 6.581%1.24

Expected total: 4.7

Yellow cards (match total)

Indicative
Over 2.566%1.52
Under 2.534%2.92
Over 3.544%2.28
Under 3.556%1.78
Over 4.525%3.95
Under 4.575%1.34
Over 5.513%7.84
Under 5.587%1.15

Expected total: 3.4

BR anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

Philippe Coutinho (?)15%6.47
Arthur (?)15%6.47
Malcom (?)15%6.47
Miranda (?)15%6.47
Dani Alves (?)15%6.47
Felipe (?)15%6.47
Claudinho (?)15%6.47
Bento (?)15%6.47

Expected total: 1.3

MA anytime goalscorer

Indicative

low sample (n=1)

S. Rahimi (Attacker)28%3.55
S. Amrabat (Midfielder)7%13.66
H. Mendyl (?)7%13.66
N. Boujellab (?)7%13.66
Y. Belhanda (?)7%13.66
A. Taarabt (?)7%13.66
M. El Haddadi (?)7%13.66
O. El Kaddouri (?)7%13.66

Expected total: 0.9

Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 1.68, away 0.76). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.