Haiti vs Scotland

Group C · Matchday 1

· Gillette Stadium, Boston

Group C standings →Bracket →HT 0% · GB-SCT 0% to advance

Haiti

13%

0–1

HT 0–1

Scotland

58%

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Goals (1)

28'

J. McGinn

Scotland

Cards (4)

39'

Jean-Ricner Bellegarde

Haiti

46'

Aaron Hickey

Scotland

95'

Kenny McLean

Scotland

91'

Findlay Curtis

Scotland

Substitutions (8)

61'

↑ J. Casimir for L. Deedson

Haiti

75'

↑ R. Christie for B. Gannon-Doak

Scotland

75'

↑ L. Dykes for C. Adams

Scotland

75'

↑ N. Patterson for A. Hickey

Scotland

76'

↑ L. Joseph for W. Isidor

Haiti

83'

↑ K. McLean for L. Shankland

Scotland

83'

↑ F. Curtis for J. McGinn

Scotland

85'

↑ Y. Fortune for R. Providence

Haiti

Match stats

54%Possession46%

15Shots9

2Shots on target2

1.05Expected goals1.05

4Corners3

23Fouls21

3Offsides1

1Saves2

85%Pass accuracy82%

Top performer

J. McGinn

Scotland · 1 goal

Lineups

Haiti4-4-2

Scotland4-4-2

What's at stake

Matchday 1, Group C opener. A win swings ~30 percentage points of qualification odds.

Season form comparison

sample home 3 · away 3

0.67

Goals / match

0.33

2.67

Conceded / match

1.33

33%

BTTS rate

Clean sheet rate

33%

0.00

xG / match (club)

1.28

4.8

Corners / match

5.8

1.6

Yellows / match

1.6

53%

Possession

55%

Haiti · last 3

Scotland0-114 June LA

Scotland · last 3

Head to head · 1 meetings

Haiti wins

Draws

Scotland wins

Last: Haiti 0-1 Scotland (2026-06-14)avg 1.0 goals

Absences

model swing: 0 / 0 pp

Haiti

No known absences.

Scotland

No known absences.

Win probability

Pre-match

The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.

Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.

The model's read

Medium confidence

Result: Scotland are slight favourites at 58%, but it is far from settled.
Goals: A low-scoring game looks likely. Under 2.5 is favoured (67%).
Both score: Expect at least one clean sheet. Both-teams-score is just 34%.

Most likely score 0-1 (18%)

Why the model leans this way

Factor contributions

home←·→away

Set pieces

-1.2%/+2.1%

Club xG form

-2.5%/-1.4%

Travel

-1.0%/-1.0%

Two-model view

Second model api-football

Two models moderately agree

Haiti

33%

Draw

33%

Scotland

33%

Their internal ratings (0-100)

0·

Form

·0

0·

Attack

·0

0·

Defence

·0

Their advice: No predictions available

Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.

Match analysis

Score-line probability

brighter = more likely

Haiti goals

0123456

Scotland goals

Most likely: 0-1 18%, 0-2 15%, 0-0 14%. Outlined cells are draws.

Total goals

over 2.5 = 33%

Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.

Team comparison

HaitiScotland

Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.

Fair odds for every market

How to use this

Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.

Match result

Home win13%7.74

Draw29%3.47

Away win58%1.72

Double chance

Home or draw42%2.40

Home or away71%1.40

Draw or away87%1.15

Draw no bet

Home (DNB)18%5.51

Away (DNB)82%1.22

Total goals

Over 0.586%1.17

Under 0.514%6.90

Over 1.562%1.62

Under 1.538%2.61

Over 2.533%3.01

Under 2.567%1.50

Over 3.515%6.73

Under 3.585%1.17

Over 4.56%17.99

Under 4.594%1.06

Odd / even goals

Odd46%2.16

Even54%1.87

Exact total goals

0 goals14%6.90

1 goals24%4.19

2 goals28%3.52

3 goals18%5.46

4 goals9%10.74

5 goals4%26.43

6+ goals2%56.35

Both teams to score

Yes34%2.96

No66%1.51

Team totals

Home over 0.542%2.39

Home over 1.510%9.69

Home over 2.52%56.26

Away over 0.577%1.29

Away over 1.544%2.28

Away over 2.519%5.30

Clean sheet

Home clean sheet23%4.44

Away clean sheet58%1.72

Win to nil

Home win to nil8%12.42

Away win to nil44%2.29

Asian handicap (home)

Home -2.5<1%205.91

Home -1.53%33.51

Home -0.512%8.34

Home +0.541%2.45

Home +1.568%1.47

Home +2.587%1.15

Correct score (top 8)

0-118%5.51

0-215%6.87

0-014%6.90

1-112%8.36

1-28%12.68

0-37%13.84

1-06%17.46

1-34%25.53

Half-time result

Home12%8.36

Draw47%2.13

Away41%2.43

Half-time goals

Over 0.560%1.67

Under 0.540%2.50

Over 1.523%4.30

Under 1.577%1.30

Half-time / full-time

Home/Home7%14.54

Home/Draw3%29.81

Home/Away2%57.77

Draw/Home6%16.75

Draw/Draw19%5.18

Draw/Away22%4.63

Away/Home1%191.20

Away/Draw3%29.81

Away/Away37%2.68

Corners (match total)

Indicative

Over 8.565%1.53

Under 8.535%2.90

Over 9.553%1.89

Under 9.547%2.12

Over 10.540%2.48

Under 10.560%1.68

Over 11.529%3.44

Under 11.571%1.41

Over 12.520%5.05

Under 12.580%1.25

Expected total: 9.9

HT corners

Indicative

Over 3.571%1.41

Under 3.529%3.44

Over 4.553%1.89

Under 4.547%2.12

Over 5.535%2.83

Under 5.565%1.55

Over 6.521%4.70

Under 6.579%1.27

Expected total: 4.8

GB-SCT corners

Indicative

Over 3.574%1.34

Under 3.526%3.90

Over 4.557%1.75

Under 4.543%2.33

Over 5.540%2.53

Under 5.560%1.65

Over 6.525%4.04

Under 6.575%1.33

Expected total: 5.1

Yellow cards (match total)

Indicative

Over 2.567%1.49

Under 2.533%3.05

Over 3.546%2.19

Under 3.554%1.84

Over 4.527%3.73

Under 4.573%1.37

Over 5.514%7.26

Under 5.586%1.16

Expected total: 3.5

HT anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

F. Pierrot (Attacker)15%6.66

D. Nazon (Attacker)15%6.66

B. Chevreuil (?)5%18.94

I. Rouaud (?)5%18.94

S. Séance (?)5%18.94

B. Labissiere (?)5%18.94

S. Lambese (?)5%18.94

S. Nordé (?)5%18.94

Expected total: 0.7

GB-SCT anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

R. Jack (?)14%7.23

R. Snodgrass (?)14%7.23

S. Armstrong (?)14%7.23

C. Paterson (?)14%7.23

J. Fleck (?)14%7.23

M. Phillips (?)14%7.23

B. McKay (?)14%7.23

D. Marshall (?)14%7.23

Expected total: 1.2

Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 0.54, away 1.49). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.