Ecuador vs Germany

Group E · Matchday 3

· MetLife Stadium, New York

Group E standings →Bracket →EC 100% · DE 100% to advance

Ecuador

15%

2–1

Germany

55%

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Goals (3)

L. Sane

assist: F. Wirtz

Germany

Nilson Angulo

Ecuador

77'

Gonzalo Plata

assist: Kevin Rodriguez

Ecuador

Cards (4)

43'

Piero Hincapié

Ecuador

44'

Aleksandar Pavlović

Germany

50'

Alan Franco

Ecuador

89'

Gonzalo Plata

Ecuador

Substitutions (10)

46'

↑ Angelo Stiller for Aleksandar Pavlović

Germany

60'

↑ Malick Thiaw for Joshua Kimmich

Germany

60'

↑ Deniz Undav for Kai Havertz

Germany

64'

↑ Maximilian Beier for Felix Nmecha

Germany

64'

↑ Ángelo Preciado for Alan Franco

Ecuador

64'

↑ Kevin Rodriguez for Enner Valencia

Ecuador

71'

↑ Pervis Estupinan for Piero Hincapié

Ecuador

73'

↑ Pascal Groß for Florian Wirtz

Germany

85'

↑ Jordy Caicedo for Nilson Angulo

Ecuador

85'

↑ Félix Torres for John Yeboah

Ecuador

Match stats

39%Possession61%

7Shots11

3Shots on target3

3Corners2

15Fouls10

0Offsides0

2Saves1

Top performer

L. Sane

Germany · 1 goal

Lineups

Ecuador4-4-2

Germany4-2-3-1

What's at stake

Matchday 3, final group game. Both sides know the exact result they need.

Season form comparison

sample home 4 · away 4

0.50

Goals / match

2.75

1.00

Conceded / match

1.25

25%

BTTS rate

100%

25%

Clean sheet rate

1.36

xG / match (club)

1.99

5.2

Corners / match

6.2

2.0

Yellows / match

1.5

54%

Possession

68%

Ecuador · last 4

Ivory Coast1-014 June DH

Germany · last 4

Ivory Coast2-120 June LA

Ecuador2-125 June DH

Paraguay1-129 June

Head to head · 1 meetings

Ecuador wins

Draws

Germany wins

Last: Ecuador 0-0 Germany (2026-06-25)avg 0.0 goals

Absences

model swing: 0 / 0 pp

Ecuador

No known absences.

Germany

No known absences.

Win probability

Pre-match

The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.

Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.

The model's read

Medium confidence

Result: Germany are slight favourites at 55%, but it is far from settled.
Goals: A low-scoring game looks likely. Under 2.5 is favoured (67%).
Both score: Expect at least one clean sheet. Both-teams-score is just 36%.

Most likely score 0-1 (17%)

Why the model leans this way

Factor contributions

home←·→away

Rest days

-4.0%/+4.0%

Club xG form

-6.0%/+2.0%

Travel

-3.0%/0.0%

Set pieces

-1.0%/+1.6%

Two-model view

Second model api-football

Two models moderately agree

Ecuador

10%

Draw

45%

Germany

45%

Their internal ratings (0-100)

14·

Form

·86

0·

Attack

·100

67·

Defence

·33

Their advice: Winner : Germany

Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.

Match analysis

Score-line probability

brighter = more likely

Ecuador goals

0123456

Germany goals

Most likely: 0-1 17%, 0-0 15%, 0-2 13%. Outlined cells are draws.

Total goals

over 2.5 = 33%

Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.

Team comparison

EcuadorGermany

Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.

Fair odds for every market

How to use this

Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.

Match result

Home win15%6.64

Draw30%3.33

Away win55%1.82

Double chance

Home or draw45%2.22

Home or away70%1.43

Draw or away85%1.18

Draw no bet

Home (DNB)22%4.65

Away (DNB)78%1.27

Total goals

Over 0.585%1.17

Under 0.515%6.86

Over 1.562%1.62

Under 1.538%2.61

Over 2.533%3.01

Under 2.567%1.50

Over 3.515%6.73

Under 3.585%1.17

Over 4.56%17.99

Under 4.594%1.06

Odd / even goals

Odd46%2.16

Even54%1.86

Exact total goals

0 goals15%6.86

1 goals24%4.22

2 goals29%3.51

3 goals18%5.46

4 goals9%10.74

5 goals4%26.43

6+ goals2%56.35

Both teams to score

Yes36%2.79

No64%1.56

Team totals

Home over 0.545%2.21

Home over 1.512%8.16

Home over 2.52%42.89

Away over 0.576%1.31

Away over 1.542%2.39

Away over 2.517%5.75

Clean sheet

Home clean sheet24%4.18

Away clean sheet55%1.83

Win to nil

Home win to nil9%10.69

Away win to nil40%2.49

Asian handicap (home)

Home -2.51%146.10

Home -1.54%26.19

Home -0.514%7.06

Home +0.544%2.26

Home +1.571%1.41

Home +2.588%1.13

Correct score (top 8)

0-117%5.79

0-015%6.86

0-213%7.46

1-113%7.84

1-28%12.40

1-06%15.57

0-36%15.65

1-34%26.00

Half-time result

Home14%7.39

Draw47%2.11

Away39%2.56

Half-time goals

Over 0.560%1.67

Under 0.540%2.50

Over 1.523%4.30

Under 1.577%1.30

Half-time / full-time

Home/Home8%12.29

Home/Draw4%27.53

Home/Away2%56.48

Draw/Home7%14.57

Draw/Draw20%5.05

Draw/Away21%4.83

Away/Home1%157.72

Away/Draw4%27.53

Away/Away35%2.87

Corners (match total)

Indicative

Over 8.578%1.28

Under 8.522%4.54

Over 9.567%1.48

Under 9.533%3.07

Over 10.556%1.80

Under 10.544%2.25

Over 11.544%2.29

Under 11.556%1.78

Over 12.533%3.06

Under 12.567%1.48

Expected total: 11.1

EC corners

Indicative

Over 3.577%1.30

Under 3.523%4.28

Over 4.560%1.67

Under 4.540%2.50

Over 5.543%2.35

Under 5.557%1.74

Over 6.527%3.67

Under 6.573%1.38

Expected total: 5.2

DE corners

Indicative

Over 3.584%1.19

Under 3.516%6.25

Over 4.570%1.43

Under 4.530%3.35

Over 5.554%1.86

Under 5.546%2.17

Over 6.538%2.65

Under 6.562%1.61

Expected total: 5.9

Yellow cards (match total)

Indicative

Over 2.568%1.46

Under 2.532%3.17

Over 3.547%2.13

Under 3.553%1.89

Over 4.528%3.57

Under 4.572%1.39

Over 5.515%6.83

Under 5.585%1.17

Expected total: 3.5

EC anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

J. Yeboah (Attacker)17%6.05

C. Noboa (?)6%17.12

Alexander Domínguez Carabalí (?)6%17.12

P. Ortíz (?)6%17.12

X. Arreaga (?)6%17.12

B. Caicedo (?)6%17.12

R. Ibarra (?)6%17.12

Á. Mena (?)6%17.12

Expected total: 0.6

DE anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

M. Dahoud (?)13%7.51

J. Weigl (?)13%7.51

A. Younes (?)13%7.51

S. Rudy (?)13%7.51

M. Hummels (?)13%7.51

N. Süle (?)13%7.51

L. Goretzka (Midfielder)13%7.51

N. Schulz (?)13%7.51

Expected total: 1.1

Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 0.60, away 1.43). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.