Curacao vs Ivory Coast

Group E · Matchday 3

· Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia

Group E standings →Bracket →CW 0% · CI 100% to advance

Curacao

11%

0–2

Ivory Coast

65%

Share card

Goals (2)

Nicolas Pépé

assist: Yan Diomande

Ivory Coast

64'

Nicolas Pépé

Ivory Coast

Cards (3)

35'

Nicolas Pépé

Ivory Coast

75'

Juninho Bacuna

Curacao

83'

Gervane Kastaneer

Curacao

Substitutions (10)

46'

↑ C. Inao Oulai for A. Diallo

Ivory Coast

61'

↑ Jeremy Antonisse for Livano Comenencia

Curacao

67'

↑ B. Toure for Y. Diomande

Ivory Coast

67'

↑ E. Wahi for N. Pepe

Ivory Coast

67'

↑ O. Diakite for A. Bonny

Ivory Coast

77'

↑ Jean Michaël Seri for Franck Kessié

Ivory Coast

77'

↑ T. Noslin for D. Fonville

Curacao

77'

↑ G. Kastaneer for J. Gaari

Curacao

90'

↑ B. Kuwas for J. Locadia

Curacao

90'

↑ S. Sambo for J. Brenet

Curacao

Match stats

38%Possession62%

12Shots7

3Shots on target3

4Corners5

11Fouls6

2Offsides1

1Saves3

Top performer

Nicolas Pépé

Ivory Coast · 2 goals

Lineups

Curacao5-3-2

Ivory Coast4-4-2

What's at stake

Matchday 3, final group game. Both sides know the exact result they need.

Season form comparison

sample home 3 · away 4

0.33

Goals / match

1.25

3.00

Conceded / match

1.00

33%

BTTS rate

50%

33%

Clean sheet rate

50%

0.00

xG / match (club)

0.00

4.7

Corners / match

5.0

1.6

Yellows / match

2.2

56%

Possession

55%

Curacao · last 3

Germany7-114 June DA

Ecuador0-021 June LH

Ivory Coast0-225 June

Ivory Coast · last 4

Head to head · 1 meetings

Curacao wins

Draws

Ivory Coast wins

Last: Curaçao 0-0 Ivory Coast (2026-06-25)avg 0.0 goals

Absences

model swing: 0 / 0 pp

Curacao

No known absences.

Ivory Coast

No known absences.

Win probability

Pre-match

The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.

Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.

The model's read

High confidence

Result: Ivory Coast are strong favourites at 65%.
Goals: Goals are a coin-flip around the 2.5 line (over 45%).
Both score: Expect at least one clean sheet. Both-teams-score is just 40%.

Most likely score 0-2 (15%)

Why the model leans this way

Factor contributions

home←·→away

Rest days

+6.0%/-6.0%

Travel

0.0%/-3.0%

Set pieces

-1.0%/+0.9%

Club xG form

-2.8%/-1.8%

Two-model view

Second model api-football

Two models moderately agree

Curacao

Draw

50%

Ivory Coast

50%

Their internal ratings (0-100)

25·

Form

·75

33·

Attack

·67

22·

Defence

·78

Their advice: Double chance : draw or Ivory Coast

Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.

Match analysis

Score-line probability

brighter = more likely

Curacao goals

0123456

Ivory Coast goals

Most likely: 0-2 15%, 0-1 14%, 1-1 11%. Outlined cells are draws.

Total goals

over 2.5 = 45%

Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.

Team comparison

CuracaoIvory Coast

Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.

Fair odds for every market

How to use this

Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.

Match result

Home win11%8.90

Draw24%4.22

Away win65%1.54

Double chance

Home or draw35%2.86

Home or away76%1.31

Draw or away89%1.13

Draw no bet

Home (DNB)15%6.79

Away (DNB)85%1.17

Total goals

Over 0.590%1.11

Under 0.510%10.32

Over 1.572%1.39

Under 1.528%3.56

Over 2.545%2.23

Under 2.555%1.81

Over 3.524%4.23

Under 3.576%1.31

Over 4.511%9.51

Under 4.589%1.12

Odd / even goals

Odd47%2.12

Even53%1.89

Exact total goals

0 goals10%10.32

1 goals18%5.44

2 goals27%3.70

3 goals21%4.71

4 goals13%7.61

5 goals6%15.40

6+ goals4%24.89

Both teams to score

Yes40%2.50

No60%1.66

Team totals

Home over 0.546%2.18

Home over 1.513%7.92

Home over 2.52%40.95

Away over 0.584%1.18

Away over 1.555%1.80

Away over 2.529%3.51

Clean sheet

Home clean sheet16%6.42

Away clean sheet54%1.85

Win to nil

Home win to nil6%16.98

Away win to nil44%2.25

Asian handicap (home)

Home -2.51%200.85

Home -1.53%35.98

Home -0.510%9.74

Home +0.534%2.95

Home +1.559%1.69

Home +2.580%1.25

Correct score (top 8)

0-215%6.86

0-114%6.92

1-111%9.20

0-010%10.32

0-39%11.06

1-29%11.18

1-36%18.05

0-44%23.80

Half-time result

Home12%8.59

Draw41%2.44

Away47%2.11

Half-time goals

Over 0.567%1.49

Under 0.533%3.04

Over 1.531%3.27

Under 1.569%1.44

Half-time / full-time

Home/Home6%16.68

Home/Draw3%29.74

Home/Away2%43.84

Draw/Home5%20.26

Draw/Draw14%6.92

Draw/Away22%4.65

Away/Home1%170.07

Away/Draw3%29.74

Away/Away44%2.30

Corners (match total)

Indicative

low sample (n=11)

Over 8.565%1.55

Under 8.535%2.82

Over 9.552%1.93

Under 9.548%2.08

Over 10.539%2.54

Under 10.561%1.65

Over 11.528%3.54

Under 11.572%1.39

Over 12.519%5.24

Under 12.581%1.24

Expected total: 9.8

CW corners

Indicative

low sample (n=11)

Over 3.571%1.41

Under 3.529%3.42

Over 4.553%1.90

Under 4.547%2.11

Over 5.535%2.85

Under 5.565%1.54

Over 6.521%4.74

Under 6.579%1.27

Expected total: 4.8

CI corners

Indicative

low sample (n=13)

Over 3.574%1.36

Under 3.527%3.77

Over 4.556%1.79

Under 4.544%2.27

Over 5.538%2.60

Under 5.562%1.62

Over 6.524%4.20

Under 6.576%1.31

Expected total: 5.0

Yellow cards (match total)

Indicative

low sample (n=10)

Over 2.572%1.39

Under 2.528%3.58

Over 3.551%1.95

Under 3.549%2.06

Over 4.532%3.12

Under 4.568%1.47

Over 5.518%5.70

Under 5.582%1.21

Expected total: 3.7

CW anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

J. Locadia (Attacker)17%5.95

B. Kuwas (Attacker)17%5.95

G. Kastaneer (Attacker)17%5.95

J. Antonisse (Attacker)17%5.95

J. Margaritha (Attacker)17%5.95

R. Janga (?)6%16.81

R. Bonevacia (?)6%16.81

Gino Ronald van Kessel (?)6%16.81

Expected total: 1.1

CI anytime goalscorer

Indicative

low sample (n=1)

F. Kessié (Midfielder)19%5.19

J. Aholou (?)17%5.90

R. Assalé (?)17%5.90

S. Doumbia (?)17%5.90

A. Cissé (?)17%5.90

Sylvain Gbohouo (?)17%5.90

B. Sangaré (?)17%5.90

W. Coulibaly (?)17%5.90

Expected total: 1.5

Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 0.61, away 1.86). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.